It wasn’t that long ago that arms control advocates would point to China as an example of how a more limited nuclear strategy could meet America’s national security goals with far fewer nuclear weapons.

If China’s “minimal deterrence” doctrine was sufficient to deter all adversaries, including the United States, with only 300 or so nuclear warheads, then indeed, the argument went, the U.S. could dramatically reduce its stockpile of 3,750 warheads and still have an effective nuclear deterrent.