Betting markets moved heavily in favor of Democratic nominee Joe Biden on Wednesday morning, installing him as the clear favorite again after a turbulent night of swings saw President Trump in the top spot for several hours.
Analysts said the changes reflected a tight race that handed Trump an early boost in Florida, triggering a flood of money being placed on the president to win.
But as the dust settled in the morning, Biden had gained ground.
Patrick Flynn, political analyst at Smarkets, which is giving Biden an 82% chance of victory, said: “After a long night of wild twists and turns in our election market, Joe Biden is once again the strong favorite to win the 2020 presidential election and become the 46th President of the United States.
“Biden now leads in the vote counts in Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and our markets make Biden a heavy favorite to win all three of those states (85%, 94%, and 93%, respectively).”
The numbers reflect a return to the picture before polls closed on Tuesday when gambling markets, reflecting public polling, had Biden as the clear favorite.
But on Tuesday night, gamblers placed money on Trump to win, buoyed by his hold on Florida and the sense that Biden was not having it all his own way.
Betfair Exchange was one of the markets that reported what it said was an “incredible flip” as Trump went from 2-to-1 to 4-to-7, suggesting his chances of winning had gone from 33% to 62%.
Professional political gambler and Betfair election expert Paul Krishnamurty echoed what many were saying at the time. “Those who said history would repeat itself have been proven correct,” he said as Biden supporters saw their hopes of an easy, early win evaporate.
But by mid-morning, with the two sides holding dueling conference calls with reporters as they began the battle of public perception ahead of expected legal fights, the odds had swung back, with Biden at his best position all campaign of 1-to-4 (or a 78% chance of victory) and Trump at 7-to-2.
?? More than £435m now matched on the @BetfairExchange Next President market.
⬇️ And Joe Biden is currently as short as 1.35, but we’ve already seen today how much this market can move…
— Betfair (@Betfair) November 4, 2020
US-Bookies.com also installed Biden as the favorite again.
“These odds have proven to be volatile over the last 12 hours, but recent news bodes well for a Biden win,” said a spokesman. “Betting markets currently list Biden as the favorite to take Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, which would help him get the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.”
