West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin has ended any suspense about whether he would support, in any form, the Biden Democrats’ Build Back Better legislation. He dropped the hammer in an interview on Fox News this Sunday before Christmas.

The curious thing is that anybody is surprised. In this era of highly partisan, polarized politics, there is a close relationship between how people vote for president and for members of Congress and how they respond to specific issues. President Joe Biden won 51% of the popular vote in November 2020, but his average job approval is at 44% in the latest polling, with 50% disapproving. So if you discount Biden’s 2020 percentages by a couple of points, you get an idea of where he, his party, and BBB, their flagship issue, stand in each state.