Ukraine continues to impose a very heavy cost on Russian military forces. Barring the use of unconventional weapons, Russia faces a nearly impossible task in securing authority over major Ukrainian population centers.

Russian losses are so heavy, they can no longer be concealed at home. Fearing popular concern over a “security operation” that looks far more like what it is — a major war — the Kremlin has been forced to broadcast medal ceremonies for wounded soldiers. State organs and media have also refocused narratives over war objectives to southeastern Ukraine, playing down the idea of removing Volodymyr Zelensky’s government from power. These are positive indications. Still, because of the nearly theological prism through which Putin views his war, he is highly unlikely to withdraw his forces to Russia, Crimea, and the Donbas unless coerced to do so. The key for the West, then, is to help Ukraine force that withdrawal.