The Paris pact isn’t the only global climate agreement President-elect Joe Biden plans to join during his first days in office.
Biden can, and likely will, also begin implementing a lesser-known global climate deal to restrict potent greenhouse gas refrigerants known as hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs. The Obama administration also helped negotiate that deal, known as the Kigali Amendment, which would set the United States and the world on a path to phase down HFCs over the next several decades.
The chemicals, used in refrigerators and air conditioners, are greenhouse gases thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide, though they remain in the atmosphere for a shorter time. If governments meet the goals of the Kigali agreement, it could avoid up to half a degree Celsius of warming by the end of the century, scientists have projected.
“This should be relatively straightforward and easy, and a very good signal to everybody — other countries, American industry, and the environmental community,” said David Doniger, senior strategic director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s climate and clean energy program. A broad coalition has backed the Kigali Amendment, including most of the appliance makers and chemical companies that would be subject to its restrictions and typically Republican-leaning groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
“One is not going to be using up [political] capital or picking a fight to go forward with Kigali,” Doniger added.
While Biden hasn’t said much publicly about the HFC deal, it’s expected he would support it. His climate plan notes his administration would “embrace” the Kigali Amendment within his first 100 days, though it doesn’t offer many details.
The HFC deal, however, has some notable differences from the Paris pact that makes Biden’s path to reengage with it more complex than simply signing an executive action and waiting 30 days, as he will do for the Paris Agreement.
The Biden administration doesn’t have to rejoin the Kigali deal, as President Trump never took any action on it, despite years of lobbying from industry to support the measure. Nonetheless, Biden would likely have to send the Kigali deal to the Senate for ratification, which requires the backing of at least two-thirds of the chamber.
The Kigali deal was brokered as an amendment to the Montreal Protocol, the global treaty crafted to close the hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s. Whereas the Paris Agreement is centered on voluntary emissions reduction pledges from governments, the Kigali Amendment has some enforcement teeth to it in the form of trade restrictions for nonparties.
Biden would see at least some Republican support for ratifying the Kigali deal.
In June 2018, 13 Republican senators wrote to Trump in support of the HFC agreement, asking him to send the deal to the Senate for a ratification vote. At least three of those senators, Louisiana Sens. John Kennedy and Bill Cassidy and Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran, still back ratification of the Kigali Amendment.
A spokesperson for Indiana Sen. Todd Young said he “continues to support the purpose of the Kigali Amendment.” Florida Sen. Marco Rubio would still support holding a ratification vote on the HFC deal, though a spokesperson didn’t specify how he would vote. The remaining six Republicans on the letter returning to the next Congress didn’t respond by press time.
Industries backing the HFC measure are optimistic about GOP support next Congress.
U.S. companies lead development of alternatives to HFCs, so implementing the HFC restrictions consistent with the Kigali deal would grow jobs in the U.S. by expanding the market for those substitutes, industry groups say. A study conducted in 2018 by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute and the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy found ratifying the Kigali deal could create 33,000 manufacturing jobs in the U.S.
Having federal limits on HFCs would also provide businesses with more certainty, especially as states such as California have begun regulating the chemicals in the absence of a federal program.
“We have just seen 2020 with almost unprecedented levels of uncertainty,” said Rachel Jones, vice president of energy and resources policy at the National Association of Manufacturers, adding it can really “snarl” the economy and companies.
“This won’t solve all that, but any little pieces we can do to increase predictability, to give ourselves a plan for what future pathways and requirements are going to look like … that orderly plan gives us some level of certainty in moving forward,” Jones added.
Free market conservative groups, however, oppose the Kigali deal and restrictions on HFCs, and they will be pressing their case with Republicans should Biden attempt to send the agreement to the Senate for ratification.
Those groups — including the Competitive Enterprise Institute, American Energy Alliance, and Heritage Action — dispute that HFC limits would create new jobs in the U.S. and instead say the measure would only benefit a handful of big companies, such as chemical giants Honeywell and Chemours. They also argue restricting HFCs could harm individual consumers and small businesses, who would have to pay more for refrigeration products.
“The lobbying has been very, very one-sided,” and a number of Republicans who support HFC restrictions “don’t know the full ramifications,” said Ben Lieberman, a senior fellow with the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
“It’s a race against time,” Lieberman added. “The reality, which is a lot less one-sided, if it has time to catch up, I think some of these Republican supporters will think twice.”
Nonetheless, actions still pending in this year’s Congress could help the Biden administration. A bipartisan measure setting HFC restrictions in line with the Kigali deal, backed by industry and environmentalists, could hitch a ride on a year-end spending bill.
House and Senate leaders agreed to a clean energy package that includes the HFC legislation, sources told the Washington Examiner on Monday.
Industry groups say it’s critical that legislation pass this year because it sets up the regulatory framework for the U.S. to implement the requirements of the Kigali deal. The groups have been working behind the scenes for two years to build a solid base of bipartisan support for the measure, culminating in a deal between top Environment Committee lawmakers Sen. John Barrasso and Sen. Tom Carper in September.
“If it isn’t done this year, it will be another year delay in getting regulations out that we need in the phasedown of these refrigerants, which would make it more difficult to meet the obligations that the industry is committed to under Kigali,” said Steve Yurek, head of the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute.
