As Nikki Haley began to surge in the polls over the course of last autumn, it became abundantly clear that for the presidential hopes of Ron DeSantis, the Iowa caucuses were an existential exercise. Now, as the final J. Ann Selzer poll of the Hawkeye State shows that the Florida governor has dropped to third place behind the former Ambassador to the United Nations, it’s more obvious than ever that DeSantis must win the first primary contest outright in order for there to remain a credible case for his candidacy.

First, imagine the best-case scenario for DeSantis.