How did the US get it so wrong on Iran’s nuclear program?

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One of the interesting aspects of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s response in the wake of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bombshell revelations on Monday was its insistence that it has no “credible evidence” Iran actively pursued nuclear weapons after 2009.

What makes this significant is that in 2007, the U.S. intelligence community released a new National Intelligence Estimate (a document which represents the consensus view of all U.S. intelligence agencies) rolling back previous conclusions and declaring that Iran was no longer working on a nuclear weapon. Specifically, the NIE declared, “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.”

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