Following the failure this weekend of new talks between the United States and North Korea, we must ask a simple question: Is President Trump now appeasing Kim Jong Un?
North Korea now retains the political initiative in the ongoing nuclear crisis. Consider the diametric reactions following the collapse of this weekend’s talks. The Trump administration responded positively to a Swedish invitation to reconvene in two weeks. Pyongyang, however, offered scathing hyperbole. The Americans, North Korea’s foreign ministry asserted, had engaged in “sickening” negotiations tactics. Future discussions would be pointless until the U.S. chose a “complete and irreversible withdrawal of hostile policy.”
Put those words in the context of what North Korea did last week and you get a bad picture.
Because what Kim did last week was to advance a submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missile capability. Although that test is not a game changer, it does represent Kim’s steady escalation against America. That escalation has been reflected in Kim’s warhead reentry vehicle research, much of which can be done in hidden factories, and in escalating missile tests. Kim has limited resources. He would not be platforming nuclear missiles onto submarines were he seriously considering a deal with America.
Kim’s emboldened attitude is also reflective of Trump’s commensurate concessions.
While the U.S.-led international sanctions regime imposes pain on Pyongyang, it is fraying with rampant Chinese and Russian sanctions busting. Kim is also confident he can continue to rely upon a South Korean government that has few qualms about providing aid without conditions. It is also likely that Kim believes Trump is unlikely to escalate his pressure on North Korea prior to the 2020 election.
As a result, Trump is faltering. Diplomacy with North Korea is necessary. But if Kim believes Trump is so desperate for a deal that he won’t resist his escalation, we’ll end up with a North Korea that has nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile capability.
