The ascendency of Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket has led to a wave of optimism within the party that the electoral map will be shaken up and November’s election is no longer a foregone conclusion.

But for all the fundraising numbers, social media memes, and vibes, the sobering reality is that the electoral map has not suddenly changed, and like President Joe Biden before her, Harris’s chance of victory is poised to come down to one state: Pennsylvania. While proper polling of Harris’s prospect against former President Donald Trump is only days old, data underscores how Trump maintains an advantage.