Concerning the Democrats, the big question is how large the margin of Obama’s victory will be. I have him at 50 percent, Hillary at 28 percent, and Edwards at 16 percent. If the 50-28 part is right, then there is a second big question: How long before Hillary bows out? On the Republican side, Romney’s debate performance helps him, but not enough to defeat McCain, who gets an Iowa bounce thanks to Huckabee’s win there. And Huck? Huck is the only Republican candidate under no pressure to win. So the last five days have been a sort of practice round for him. He does just fine. Paul hits double digits, ahead of Giuliani, whose strategy has Florida as the first state he wins and then launches his unbeatable candidacy. Huh? The numbers in New Hampshire: McCain 32 Romney 29 Huckabee 20 Paul 10 Giuliani 6
