Former President Donald Trump has his best chance at victory since the end of July, election analyst Nate Silver predicted.

Democrats have seen a surge in optimism since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris in late July, ushering in a series of polls showing their new candidate in the lead. However, this enthusiasm appears to be fading, and Silver sees signs of Trump pulling off a comeback victory in November. His prediction model, updated on Wednesday, has Trump with a 58.2% chance of winning.