It has now been almost three months since President Joe Biden pronounced the War in Afghanistan over. He predicated the U.S. withdrawal on the fact that it would not undercut American security. “I also know that the threat from terrorism continues in its pernicious and evil nature. But it’s changed, expanded to other countries. Our strategy has to change too,” he declared, explaining “We have what’s called over-the-horizon capabilities, which means we can strike terrorists and targets without American boots on the ground — or very few, if needed.”

That was a lie. The Islamic State-Khorasan is now present in nearly every Afghan province. Just as the U.S. intelligence community underestimated the speed with which the Taliban would overrun Afghanistan, so too did they botch assessments of the degree to which terrorist groups would thrive after the U.S. withdrawal. Those like former envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, who argued that the United States could use the Taliban against the Islamic State, were foolish.