Mike Murphy worries that it might be, pointing to recent Democratic gains among Latinos and under-30 voters. Murphy’s analysis jibes with the latest Pew study on political trends, which I recently wrote about here. Jay Cost takes issue with Murphy here. I think we can say three things: (1) Once a group chooses a party, it tends to stick with it for a long time, (2) “a long time” is not the same as “forever,” and (3) rapid swings in party strength aren’t unusual in American politics–as we saw in the period from 2005 to 2009 and, decades ago, from 1975 to 1981.
