RECENT EVENTS in Afghanistan, notably the temporary seizure of the Afghan towns of Garmser and Naway-i-Barakzayi, have once again provoked a wave of speculation concerning a renewed Taliban offensive. The ability of the Taliban and their allies in al Qaeda and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami to organize such attacks suggests that they have succeeded at establishing a new safe haven–in northern Pakistan.