A new poll indicates the majority of Californians aren’t coalescing behind a ballot measure that would impose a wealth tax on the state’s billionaires, signaling an uphill battle for the initiative.
Proposition 40 aims to place a one-time 5% tax on billionaires. The measure aims to raise roughly $100 billion over five years and is intended to subsidize health insurance and food stamps, among other state-funded programs.
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A poll released Friday showed that support for the ballot measure has yet to crack the 50% threshold among likely California voters.
Of those surveyed, 48% support Proposition 40, compared with 41% who oppose the proposed wealth tax and 11% who are undecided, according to the poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times. The development comes after key Democrats in the state have come out against the hefty tax, including Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and gubernatorial nominee Xavier Becerra.
IGS poll director Mark DiCamillo described the poll results as a possible “red flag” for the ballot measure’s success in November. Traditionally, Californians who are undecided on ballot measures tend to vote against them, he told the outlet.
“It’s got an early lead, but it’s not a very large lead, and it’s not a majority,” he said. “Usually, for ballot propositions, you want the yes side to be above 50%, and that’s not where it is right now.”
Socialists and more progressive politicians have endorsed the measure, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA).
Proponents, led by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, have argued the “emergency” tax is needed to offset healthcare funding cuts stemming from President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Under the measure, 90% of the estimated revenue would go toward California’s healthcare system, while the remaining 10% would fund public education and food assistance programs.
Newsom has expressed concern that placing the wealth tax on the state’s 216 billionaires would weaken California’s economy and reduce future revenue. In June, the governor even rejected a union proposal to lower the tax rate to 2% if he backed it.
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“The Governor has been clear that he is strongly opposed to a California-only wealth tax,” Newsom spokeswoman Tara Gallegos previously told the Washington Examiner. “The Governor supports making the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share, but this poorly designed state-only measure will defund teachers, schools, clinics, and public safety. Changing the tax rate doesn’t change this measure’s fundamental flaws that harm working Californians.”
The Berkeley IGS-Los Angeles Times poll findings are based on an online survey in English and Spanish of 4,207 California registered voters, 2,310 of whom are considered likely voters, from Aug. 3-9. The results are estimated to have a margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points.
