The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture figures show herd numbers stabilized this year and have begun to tick up. 

The total number of cattle and calves totaled 94.2 million on July 1, an increase of 200,000 from last year.

It may sound modest, but experts at the America First Policy Institute say it reflects policy reforms introduced by the Trump administration that are already easing supermarket prices and strengthening an industry under attack from the left.

“Are we going to have the beef hamburger, are we going to have the opportunity to have a farm … to pursue our American dream, whatever that may look like, or do you have communist grocery stores and artificial meat that Bill Gates is producing,” said AFPI executive vice president Ashley Hayek, referencing ideas about lab-grown meat and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s plan for government-run grocery stores.

“That’s really what this question comes down to,” Hayek added. “One side of these policies is to demonize this industry. The other side is freedom, opportunity, and pursuit of the American dream.”

In the mid-1990s, the number of beef cows numbered 35.3 million. Today, the number is 27.6 million.

It collapsed rapidly from 2021, when drought and high feed prices led ranchers to sell their breeding cows, setting off a doom spiral.

“Selling a breeding cow would give the market beef today,” said Hayek, “but it eliminates the calves she would produce in the future.”

The result is an additional squeeze on consumers. The average price of a pound of ground beef today is $6.89, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared with $3.88 at the start of the pandemic.

The latest numbers will be seized on by a Trump administration, which is desperate for evidence that prices are easing ahead of midterm elections that could be dominated by $4 gas and the impact of the Iran war.

T.J. Wilson, deputy director of rural policy at AFPI, said: “I think there are signs that costs at large are coming down.”

Last month, Walmart knocked almost $1 off some lines of ground beef.

In a new report, AFPI said herd size improvements were the result of policies affecting everything from grazing to processing in the beef industry.

Changes to rules on ranching on public lands will increase the number of cattle grazing on more than 100 million acres in the West. 

At the same time, the Department of Justice has turned its attention to allegations of price collusion among meatpackers.

And the USDA pre-empted the spread of New World screwworm, taking action before it could reach American herds from Mexico.

None of this is a quick fix for herd size. Growth is limited by the speed of reproduction in cattle, with heifers generally having their first calf when they reach two years of age.

But ranchers have stopped selling their breeding cows, according to the latest data. 

“We’re seeing heifer retention for the first time in nine years, which is humongous,” said Wilson. 

That might not bring down prices to their 2020 levels just yet.

“But it’s kind of hay in the barn for down the road, being able to have a greater beef supply in the country and to rebuild that herd back,” Wilson said.

Press secretary latest

There were clues to who might be the next White House press secretary on social media over the weekend, if you knew where to look.

Who was that filmed clapping along to the Village People’s “Y.M.C.A.” at a table near Trump at his Bedminster golf club? Why, it was Alina Habba, one-time New Jersey prosecutor and former counselor to the president. Could it mean she was being lined up for the gig?

Gamblers certainly think so. Her odds on the prediction market site Kalshi shot up to 38% as the images circulated. She overtook Karoline Leavitt’s top deputy, Anna Kelly.

Secrets suggests caution. Habba has been talked up for every big job going in the administration for the past year. Usually by herself. And if there is one sure way to knock yourself out of the running, it is by lobbying for the job.

In the meantime, my colleagues explain why men need not apply for the gig.

Quote of the day

“It is literally Gary from ‘Veep.’ … It is the most accurate description of the job that we do,” said one former body person, citing the most put-upon of characters from the TV show to describe a role that means sticking by the side of a senator, navigating them from meeting to meeting, while fielding requests to collect dry cleaning or walk the dog.

It comes from this fun piece about the job.

Lunchtime reading

The Iranian YouTube show posing questions few dare ask: Azad helped broker Tucker Carlson’s interview with the Iranian president last year. So how does it survive when it airs critical views of the regime?

How Churchill’s propaganda helped Britain win the war: Trust in government may have eroded after the First World War and American commentators did much to challenge official accounts of the conflict, but Britons knew the value of freedom and would endure much to ensure its survival. Plenty of lessons for today.

You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at [email protected] with your comments, story tips, and suggestions. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, click here.