The “strength and viability” of any effort to have Iowa “fight back” against the DNC’s calendar “coronation” will come down to Nov. 3, the date of the midterm elections, one Iowa Democrat and former elected official told the Washington Examiner.

Iowa’s governor’s race, in addition to those for the state’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts, are considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. The 2nd District and Senate races are also considered competitive, though slightly favorable to Republicans.

“If you see IA-01, IA-02, and IA-03 go blue as they did in 2018, as well as the flipping of the open governor and U.S. Senate seats, you’re going to have a renewed vigor for telling the DNC to eff off,” the source told the Washington Examiner. “If all those races stay red? It’s the nail in the coffin.”

A second Iowa Democrat and former elected official, Charlie Comfort, agreed that there is support for ignoring the DNC’s 2028 calendar and forging ahead with the party’s caucuses when the Iowa Republican Party holds its nominating contest, particularly because “there are a lot of positive signs on the ground this year that favor Democrats” and the state party does not “want to lose that momentum.”

“I’d be supportive of it being early regardless of what the DNC says,” Comfort told the Washington Examiner. “Heck, New Hampshire went early in 2024, and they still landed in the early vote window for 2028.”

Comfort said “holding the caucuses early regardless of what the DNC says would actually help Iowa Democrats as it sends a message to those in Iowa who are weary of the Democrat brand that we will not kowtow the line [or] decision that the DNC thinks is best,” adding that the DNC is “a joke due to current leadership.”

Since his election in 2025, DNC Chairman Ken Martin has encountered criticism for his management of the Democrats’ 2024 election autopsy and for his lack of fundraising prowess, as the DNC has been repeatedly outraised by the Republican National Committee. 

The DNC is more than $2 million in debt, while the RNC has more than $128 million cash on hand, according to campaign financial disclosure documents released last month ending June 30.

“Iowa can return to swing-state status, but it’s hard to do that when Democrats don’t have the resources to compete,” Comfort said. “2026 should be a blue tsunami, but Chairman Ken Martin’s completely inept leadership won’t let that happen. I ran school board meetings better as my school board president than Ken Martin does as DNC chair. The man should resign and let a real leader take over.”

Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Rita Hart did not specifically criticize Martin in Austin, Texas, on Saturday during the DNC’s final meeting regarding the 2028 calendar, but she did criticize the committee’s decision-making process and its results, contending both have become an “unwelcome distraction” from the midterm elections.

“I’m deeply concerned that our party has not learned from past mistakes,” Hart told the DNC. “We need a Midwest and a truly rural state to be among the first four states if we hope to build sustainable and lasting Democratic majorities that enact real and meaningful change.”

She added, “The Republicans will hold their first-in-the-nation caucus in Iowa in 2028, will spend hundreds of millions of dollars to promote their candidates, and will bring tons of national media attention as well. Excluding Iowa from the early calendar, at a time when we’ll have at least three Democratic members of Congress and an opportunity to flip Chuck Grassley‘s Senate seat in 2028, gives the other side a giant media bullhorn that we abdicate with this calendar.”

University of Iowa professor Timothy Hagle underscored that the DNC’s 2028 calendar, which starts with South Carolina on Jan. 22, 2028, followed by Nevada on Feb. 1, New Hampshire on Feb. 8, New Mexico on Feb. 15, Michigan on Feb. 22, and Virginia on Feb. 29, remains contingent on states changing their respective, relevant laws.

New Hampshire lawmakers passed a state law in 1975 stipulating that its “presidential primary election shall be held on the second Tuesday in March or on a date selected by the secretary of state, which is seven days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election, whichever is earlier.”

“The DNC has increased the penalties for going rogue,” Hagle also told the Washington Examiner. “The advantages of Iowa Democrats going first would likely outweigh the total loss of delegates. The sticking point might be the fine imposed.”

Democratic strategist James Carville went further, discouraging Iowa Democrats from going against the DNC’s calendar and describing it as not “the smartest thing they could do.”

“The Iowa caucuses just kind of turned out to be difficult to administer,” Carville told the Washington Examiner. “No matter what you do, somebody’s going to say it’s a mistake. ‘Well, we should have more rural voters. We should have had more diverse voters.’ Woulda, shoulda, coulda. The most important voting bloc in the Democratic Party are black Americans. South Carolina going first recognizes that. I think it was a wise and well-deserved choice.”

In 2020, the Iowa Democratic Party could not name a winner on caucus night because the mobile app it used to count and report the results did not work for many precinct chairs, nor did their backup telephone lines.

Saturday’s vote comes after the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met in June to reform the penalties for any state or candidate that defies its 2028 calendar.

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The new penalties include increasing the delegates lost for states that hold a primary election or caucus from 50% to 100%, introducing a $270,000 fine for any state that hosts an unsanctioned contest, prohibiting candidates who take part in those contests from earning delegates, prohibiting those candidates from participating in DNC debates, and requiring all candidates to denounce any campaigning on their behalf for those contests.

“Listen, I love our states and I understand their frustration,” Martin told reporters in July. “Everyone is hot under the collar right now … [But] this is a calendar this party is actually going to protect. And unlike the past, it’s not going to be a wink and a nod, ‘We’ll let you do what you want and you can get away with it.’ If they [decide] to do that, they know what the consequences are and we’ve been very clear.”