But for most market analysts, that’s “utterly preposterous.” 

The two U.S. officials claimed this week that the U.S. military has been able to facilitate the transit of around 10 million barrels of oil a day through the strait via a southern channel along the coast of Oman, according to Axios.

If accurate, this would suggest that the U.S. has dramatically limited Iran’s ability to hold oil markets hostage, and facilitated the flow of at least half of what was pumped through before the war began. 

However, most trackers estimate that just about 5 million barrels of oil are transiting the strait each day, roughly half of the recent administration’s claim.

Administration’s insistence: Trump officials have defended their estimates, saying they have access to data that the public does not.

On Monday, Wright told Fox News that he receives a report each day detailing which ships exited the strait, what was being transported, and where the ship came from.

“Ours aren’t estimates — we have the actual data,” he said.

Wright said the agency can track ships that move covertly through the strait, turning off transponders to avoid detection and attacks from Iran. Private tracking relies on transponder data and thus is undercounting, he said.

Some pushback: On the high end, oil market researcher Rory Johnston has said the seven-day average of confirmed transits through the strait peaked at around 7.5 million barrels per day during the first week of August.

Brett Erickson, managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, has repeatedly cast doubt on the Trump administration’s figures, calling the recent numbers “egregious,” “utterly preposterous,”  and “complete crap.”

Influence on prices: The Trump administration’s rosy view of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t appear to have moved markets. Trump and other officials have been able to lower prices in the past by insisting there was steady flow of oil through the waterway, or that they were close to a peace deal. 

It’s unclear if that was the administration’s intention in releasing the recent figures, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did say today that we’re seeing a “spike in oil prices today that I don’t really understand.” 

Now, traders have grown wary of the positive outlook from Washington, causing oil prices to near four-week highs. 

Around 2 p.m. EDT, both international and domestic prices were up by more than 2%, with Brent crude trading at around $93.57 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate was also up to $86.68 a barrel. 

Read more from Callie here. 

All the rest

GOP SENATOR PUTS HOLD ON TRUMP NOMINEES OVER WETLANDS POLICY: North Dakota Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer is placing a hold on all future Trump nominees – over a Biden administration policy. 

The details: Cramer has placed a hold on all pending nominees over a wetland policy imposed under the Biden administration that protects duck and bird habitats by managing the draining of protected wetlands. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service announced last week that it would no longer be considering changing the policy. 

Cramer lambasted the decision, saying it was “screwing” private landowners. He told E&E News this week that administration officials were initially onboard with changing the policy, as part of its broader regulatory agenda. 

The senator has said the rule hurts farmers in his district, restricting how close individuals can farm to boundaries of easements for waterfowl habitats. 

“There will be no pause in my aggression because I can’t take any more chances with this,” Cramer told the outlet. “I have put a hold on all nominees, period, of all agencies. So I hope [Supreme Court Justice] Clarence Thomas stays healthy.”

It’s important to note that the Senate is not in session and is not actively considering nominations. However, when they return in a couple of weeks, Cramer’s hold could delay key nominations to the Interior Department, the Department of Health and Human Services, and the National Science Foundation that the administration is aiming to move through while Republicans still hold the majority. 

DATA CENTER OPPOSITION CONTINUES TO GROW, POLL SAYS: About 75% of Americans oppose a data center being built near where they live, according to a new Heatmap poll conducted by Embold Research. 

The poll found that more than six in 10 Americans “strongly oppose” a data center being built near where they live. The poll was conducted in February, but Heatmap noted that there has been a significant shift since a similar poll was conducted last August, when Americans were about 43% in support and 42% opposed to data centers. 

Plus: Former Republican Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said he was alarmed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee memo made public this week that warned that data centers are harming Republicans’ chances to secure a Senate seat in Ohio. 

Hutchinson told NewsNation today that the NRSC memo was almost alarmist in tone, which is concerning in and of itself.”

“Republican candidates need to define themselves on the issue of data centers and their expansions and building them in our communities before they are defined on it and before it becomes a bigger issue,” Hutchinson added.

In the memo, the NRSC told AI companies that data centers would be to blame if incumbent Sen. Jon Husted loses the Ohio Senate race. 

SEALSKIN DIPLOMACY TO DRILL IN GREENLAND: A Texas energy company looking to drill for oil in Greenland has an idea on how to convince the Arctic island to open its doors: seals. 

Well, technically, the company is looking at seal products. 

Greenland Energy, which has ties to Trump, has reportedly put together a 36-page “sealskin diplomacy” proposal for the administration, according to the Financial Times. This proposal suggests lifting a ban on American imports of seal products, increasing income for remote communities in Greenland to ease tensions with the Danish territory. 

“The US has a rare opportunity to strengthen its relationship with Greenland without spending taxpayer money, without touching Greenland’s political status, without increasing the number of seals taken, and without asking Greenland to do anything at all,” the proposal reportedly reads. 

The U.S. has banned the import and sale of seal fur and other products since 1972, only allowing exceptions for Alaskan natives. The proposal has received support from at least one of Greenland’s MPs in the Danish parliament. 

In case you forgot: U.S. relations with Greenland soured last year over Trump’s repeated statements that his administration wants to take control of the island, insisting that it would be critical for national security. 

EUROPE NEEDS TO RAMP UP LNG IMPORTS TO FILL GAS STORAGE AHEAD OF WINTER, ANALYSIS SAYS: Europe needs more than 140 liquefied natural gas vessels per month to bring its storage levels up to 80% by November, according to a new analysis by European energy market intelligence provider Montel. 

Europe is racing to refill its gas storage levels ahead of the winter season, but the war in Iran has tightened the supply chain for natural gas. Montel noted that Europe is losing LNG cargoes to higher-paying Asian markets. In its forecasts, Montel estimates that European storage could reach 69% in a low-case scenario and as high as 84% by Nov. 1. 

However, Montel said that those two case scenarios are still short of the EU’s target of 90% storage capacity. Currently, the EU’s natural gas storage is at 62% capacity. 

“Continued disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz mean that pressure on Europe’s gas market continues to build as winter approaches,” Joachim Endress, gas market expert at Montel, said. 

European Commission spokesperson Eva Hrncirova said today that there is no immediate concern about the bloc’s natural gas supply storage, Reuters reports. At the same time last year, the EU’s gas storage was 74% filled. 

ICYMI – APPEALS COURT UPHOLDS EPA DECISION TO DESIGNATE CERTAIN ‘FOREVER CHEMICALS’ AS HAZARDOUS: An appeals court on Tuesday upheld the Environmental Protection Agency’s decision to designate two types of “forever chemicals” as hazardous substances, despite challenges brought by various industries. 

As a reminder: The Biden administration put forth a rule to designate two common types of PFAS, perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), as hazardous substances. The designation allows the agency to force cleanups of sites and hold companies financially accountable for cleanup costs. The Trump EPA has backed the rule. 

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that the EPA has the authority to designate these chemicals as hazardous. 

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, one of the groups that sued over the rule, told The Hill in a statement that the agency has failed to consider the costs and consequences the regulation would have on businesses. The chamber noted that it is considering its next steps. 

RUNDOWN 

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