“We are going to squash the economy of this murderous regime, which will curtail their ability to project power through their proxies,” Bessent boasted. “So it is time for our allies and the rest of the world to make a decision.”

“It is a one-two punch. We have the blockade, and we are going to have the toughest sanctions in history,” Bessent said. “I will tell you, this will work. It worked in Venezuela once we put up the blockade. It is working in Cuba right now. And it is going to work in Iran, and we are going to collapse this regime.”

THE IRAN PEACE DEAL EXPIRES — AND THE CONFLICT ENTERS A DANGEROUS PHASE

IRAN SCOFFS: Publicly at least, Iran is projecting an image of dismissive defiance. “Americans think squeezing Iran harder will win concessions that were never part of the agreement,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X. “Bessent and Hegseth are way out of their league. Stop waiting for the clown crew to pull a rabbit out of their hat and clean up the mess you made.”

Iran is threatening an economic D-Day of its own, reportedly planning strikes on Gulf oil terminals to surge global energy prices, and by targeting the U.S. support for so-called “dark runs” through a narrow channel on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Marc Thiessen, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, warns that Iran could be planning an “October surprise” ahead of the mid-term elections, because Operation Epic Fury — while inflicting devastating losses, still left Iran with enough firepower to threaten Gulf energy infrastructure. “Iran could decide to use that firepower before Americans go to the polls in November,” Thiessen writes in the Washington Post.

Others worry that the hard-line regime, now controlled to a large extent by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, doesn’t care about the suffering of the Iranian people, so long as it can hold on to power. “Someone should inform President Trump that Iran is already the most sanctioned country in the world by far by the United States,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said on MS NOW. “And we do have what are called secondary sanctions on Iran where we already sanction countries that do business with Iran.”

IRAN SLAMS US ‘CLOWN CREW’ AS TRUMP THREATENS TO ANNEX STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITH NO END TO WAR IN SIGHT

TRUMP: ‘A LOT OF BOATS ARE COMING THROUGH’: Trump insists that while the U.S. naval blockade is an impenetrable “wall of steel,” the media is missing the fact that U.S. has been able to move ships through the strait surreptitiously by keeping their transponders off. 

“The strait is open,” Trump said. “A lot of boats are coming through. People aren’t reporting that. And that may slow down a little bit at some point, but right now, a lot of boats are coming through.”

The reason no one has been reporting that is because it was being done in secret. “Under the operation, which has been underway for the last several weeks, 15-20 tankers have entered and exited the strait each night through a southern channel along the coast of Oman,” two U.S. officials told Axios. “About 10 million barrels of oil a day — roughly half the pre-war volume — are being transported out of the strait and injected into the global energy market, the officials said.”

“We have possession, complete control of the strait,” Trump said Wednesday. “I mean, outside of nuisance value — and there is nuisance value when they shoot a drone every once in a while, but … And over the last couple of weeks, we’ve had a lot of oil coming out, a lot of oil. It’s not going to be perfect, but it’s a lot of oil coming out, a lot.”

“I would say that Iran had been fairly effective up until now, shutting off about 90% of the flow of traffic. But we’re starting to see more traffic get in and out of there, and that’s a good thing,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) said on CNN. “ I think this is a better strategy than what we have had. The blockade is probably the easier thing for us to enforce. Right now, we’ve been able to choke almost all the traffic going in and out of Iran. That’s good. Their economy is really struggling. It’s going to really weaken the regime.”

TRUMP TEAM OUT ON A LIMB WITH CLAIM THAT OIL IS FLOWING THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. 

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NOTE TO READERS: I am winding down my time at the Washington Examiner and will cease writing the Daily on Defense newsletter as of the end of the month. A new team will be taking over, and they’ve promised a revamped and reinvigorated newsletter to keep you on top of all the fast-breaking developments in the world of national security. But I’m not gone yet, so meanwhile… 

TRUMP SEEKS TO REKINDLE ‘BROMANCE’ WITH KIM: President Trump has spent the week saying nice things about North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

Ignoring the fact that North Korea has sent troops and missiles to help Russia in its war against Ukraine, over the weekend, Trump ordered Defense Pete Hegseth to curtail annual joint military exercises with South Korea because they “send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile” to North Korea, which he said, since he’s been president, “has been unthreatening and respectful.”

“I do have a good relationship with Kim Jong Un,” Trump said yesterday. “He didn’t like Biden. He didn’t like Obama. He didn’t like anybody. But he likes me.”

“I didn’t like the fact that we’re doing these massive military exercises, really, against North Korea … when I’m friendly with him,” Trump said. 

Kim didn’t return the warm sentiments. Instead, Pyongyang said curtailing the drill meant nothing, and underscored the message by launching a barrage of ​​10 short-range ballistic missiles in the sea off its eastern coast.

“We think it’s not worth making comments on that and we have no interest in it at all,” said Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, in a statement. “The provocative, aggressive nature of the drills won’t change even though their duration and size were reduced.”

Trump says he wants to meet with Kim Jong Un later this year, and insisted that despite possessing an arsenal of 57 nuclear warheads, North Korea is not a threat as long as he’s president. “I know Kim Jong Un very well, and he’s going to be fine. As long as we have a smart president, he’s going to be fine. If we have a dumb president, then he’s probably not going to be so fine.”

DID TRUMP REVEAL CLASSIFIED INTELLIGENCE? When Trump told reporters Wednesday that Kim “has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons,” arms control experts were surprised. “I never expected to hear a President give such a precise estimate. And I have not heard of any President since the collapse of the Agreed Framework giving an estimate of the size of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal,” David Albright, president and founder of the  Institute for Science and International Security, posted on X.

“[Intellignce Community] estimates of foreign nuclear stockpiles are basically never point estimates,” Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in nuclear nonproliferation at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies posted on X. “They’re ranges with confidence levels. Declassified documents show rounded numbers — ‘enough material for X to Y weapons ’— not individual warhead counts. ‘57’ is not how the IC talks.”

“I’d be shocked if the IC offered an individual warhead count,” Lewis said. “More likely are estimates are derived from how much [Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium] North Korea has produced, divided by how much material each weapon might use.” 

When Trump was questioned about the number the next day he said, “I don’t want to talk about that.”

STEAMED OVER STEAM: Trump’s executive order, requiring the future aircraft carrier USS Doris Miller to be built with old-fashioned steam catapults and hydraulics, has naval ship experts scratching their heads. The carrier — which is now referred to by its hull number CVN-81, reportedly because Trump wants it named after himself — is not set to be delivered until 2034, but the redesign could further delay its construction and add billions to its cost.

“I don’t understand the silence of retired Navy Admirals who know this is all nonsense, a huge waste of money, and a major delay in completion of new ships,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges posted on X.

“Redesigning the USS Doris Miller, already under construction, to replace its electromagnetic catapults with steam systems will exacerbate the readiness crisis,” Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, writes in the Washington Post. “The change is estimated to cost billions of dollars and delay the ship’s launch into the late 2030s. And that’s only if the Navy can convince a manufacturer to start building steam catapults again after a nearly three-decade hiatus.”

“The Navy adopted electromagnetic catapults in its new carriers for the same reason rail lines shifted from steam to electric propulsion during the 20th century. Electric power has fewer moving parts, is more reliable, costs less, and offers higher speeds compared with steam power,” Clark writes. “Continued construction and redesign delays for the USS Miller would shrink the fleet to nine carriers during the next decade. The Navy would need to work the smaller force harder, wearing out its people and equipment faster, and accelerating the readiness decline.”

USS GEORGE WASHINGTON ARRIVES IN MIDDLE EAST

THE RUNDOWN: 

Washington Examiner: The Iran peace deal expires — and the conflict enters a dangerous phase

Washington Examiner: Oil flows and Iranian economic woes give White House much-needed PR reprieve around war

Washington Examiner: United Arab Emirates suspends trade with Iran after latest attack

Washington Examiner: Trump team out on a limb with claim that oil is flowing through Strait of Hormuz

Washington Examiner: USS George Washington arrives in Middle East

Washington Examiner: USS Lincoln turmoil underscores Republicans’ Iran vulnerabilities

Washington Examiner: Trump gutted South Korea military drills due to lack of help against Iran

Washington Examiner: North Korea shrugs off Trump’s scaled-back drills with South Korea, saying it changes nothing

Washington Examiner: Kim Jong Un’s sister ‘completely unaware’ of communications between North Korea and Trump

Washington Examiner: Pentagon announces $22.9 billion contract with Raytheon for Tomahawk missiles

Washington Examiner: ‘That’s the Jetsons that’s coming to life’: Trump officials tout multifront drone initiative

Washington Examiner: Saildrone announces European expansion with plans for Norway, Poland, and the Netherlands

Washington Examiner: Israel agrees to ‘working groups’ for Board of Peace’s demilitarization of Gaza after Kushner meets with Netanyahu and Hamas

Washington Examiner: Trump indicates US won’t seek memorandum of understanding extension following conclusion of 60-day ceasefire

Washington Examiner: Iran slams US ‘clown crew’ as Trump threatens to annex Strait of Hormuz with no end to war in sight

Washington Examiner: FBI foils New York woman’s alleged ISIS attack plan on state capitol

Washington Examiner: Graham Nordone attempts to quell backlash over Taiwan question: ‘I don’t speak politician’

Washington Examiner: Cuban foreign agent running for Congress claims conflicting residencies

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump is blinded by his personal relationship with Kim Jong Un

Wall Street Journal: North Korea Rejects Trump’s Drills-Cut Overture as an Empty Gesture

Axios: U.S. conducting stealth operation to transport oil through Hormuz

The Atlantic: Ukraine Planned to Swarm Moscow Airports With AI-Guided Drones

AP: Zelenskyy fires a top aide amid a graft probe as Ukraine’s ex-defense minister demands elections

Wall Street Journal: Dwindling Patriot Supplies Leave Kyiv in the Line of Fire

Kyiv Independent: Fedorov broke Ukraine’s wartime election taboo. What happens next?

Breaking Defense: Drone Companies, Admin Leaders Meet for First White House ‘Drone Dominance’ Meeting

Wall Street Journal: New Drone Unit to Be Phased Out as Hegseth’s Army Pick Makes His Mark

Defense One: Golden Dome Caucus Chair Says Building Support, Funding for Missile Shield Is a ‘Tough Slog’

CNN: Navy weighs renaming carrier slated to honor Black war hero, potentially switching it to Trump

New York Times: Trump’s Ballroom Is Rising at Breakneck Speed: 20 Hours a Day, 7 Days a Week

Washington Post: Trump dismisses families’ concerns about USS Abraham Lincoln conditions

Washington Post: U.S. military has lost roughly 25% of its Reaper drones as Iran war depletes arsenal

Washington Post: Trump’s steam obsession risks crippling the U.S. carrier fleet

AP: Longtime publisher of Stars and Stripes to retire, citing differences with Pentagon leadership

CBS News: Pentagon officials considering firing longtime Stars and Stripes publisher, sources say

The Atlantic: Opinion: Donald Trump Effectively Just Told Iran to Get a Nuclear Weapon

Defense News: US Approves Possible $4.5 Billion Sale of KC-46As, Equipment to Qatar

Defense Scoop: DIU Tries to Transition Tech to the Frontlines Faster with Launch of New Bridge Program

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Osan Drills Target North Korea’s Growing Drone Threat

Breaking Defense: DOD Memo Pushes for More Contractor Pricing Info, Potential Direct Software Link

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Navy Invests in Shield’s Vertical-Takeoff Drone; Air Force Holds Off

Aviation Week: Pentagon Forming Fast-Track Path for Directed Energy Prototypes

Air & Space Forces Magazine: MQ-9 Lost in Middle East Last Year Due to Chafed Wire: New Report

The War Zone: Our Best Look at China’s New Y-15 Turboprop Airlifter

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Seymour Johnson Will Get F-15EXs to Replace Some Strike Eagles

Task & Purpose: Gamblers Have Made $8 Million on Polymarket Betting on Military Operations

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Inks Deal for New Dorms at Medical Training Campus

THE CALENDAR: 

FRIDAY | AUGUST 21

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Middle Distillates and the Middle East,” with Joseph Majkut, director, CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program; and Kevin Book, nonresident senior adviser, CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program https://www.csis.org/events/energy-shots-middle-distillates-and-middle-east

FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 11

9:30 a.m. National Press Club — Arms Control Association briefing: “Mitigating the Risks of AI in Nuclear Operations.” with retired Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan; Herb Lin, senior research scholar and Hank J. Holland fellow in cyber policy and security at the Hoover Institution and Stanford University; Matthew Sharp, a senior nuclear fellow, Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT and former acting deputy assistant secretary of state for nuclear affairs; and Erin Dumbacher, Stanton nuclear security senior fellow and director, Defense and National Security program, Council on Foreign Relations https://secure.everyaction.com/

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 17

9:30 a.m. SVC-217, U.S. Capitol — Senate Armed Services Committee CLOSED briefing on the implementation of the National Defense Strategy and its impact on global defense posture. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov