Desperate to end Western support for Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is escalating his threats against NATO. Because Putin pays little heed to rhetorical warnings, the Trump administration must physically deter him.
To be sure, NATO has its flaws and needs fixes. But the defensive alliance also remains the most successful in history. And aside from its moral service of peace and freedom, NATO continues to provide vast economic benefits to America. But concern over Putin’s appetite for aggression is growing.
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I warned back in June that escalation was likely as Putin’s war on Ukraine faltered and Ukrainian drones brought the war to Russia. Underlining this concern, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow this week to warn the Russians to back off. The fear is a provocation targeting the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, or perhaps even the United Kingdom. In May, the United States warned Russia over its threats to Latvia.
There’s more evidence of Putin’s antagonism. He recently excluded Russia’s only anti-war party from September’s parliamentary elections. Not because that party would win any seats, but because its vote tally might broadcast growing disenchantment with the war. Putin also recently threatened another American ally, Japan. Put simply, it’s clear that the U.S. must force Putin to reassess his escalation calculus.
But how to do so?
Calibration is key. The response must reinforce deterrence while avoiding unnecessary stresses on the U.S. military. While Washington think tanks deny it, the Iran war has proven the hard reality of military trade-offs. That war has predictably depleted munitions stockpiles central to deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan. It has increased rather than decreased strategic risk. At the same time, NATO’s credibility depends on allies joining any response.
Fortunately, there is an option that meets these requirements. It’s a joint parachute drop into Estonia by the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division and 173rd Airborne Brigade, and their Polish 6th Airborne Brigade, British 16 Air Assault Brigade, and French 11th Parachute Brigade partners.
The benefit of focusing on Estonia is not just that the country is a key focus of Russian threats. Estonia carries broader significance in the Kremlin for geographic and ideological reasons. For one, this reliable, pro-American ally is just 85 miles southwest of Putin’s home city of St. Petersburg. But Putin also views Estonia much as he does Ukraine, as a detached Russian imperial territory. Putting boots on the ground here thus serves to confront Putin where it matters most.
The means of action are equally potent.
The 82nd Airborne Division and the 173rd Airborne Brigade can each land battalion-size formations (total collective strength approximately 1,800 personnel) on Estonian soil within 30 hours of notice (based in northern Italy, the 173rd Airborne can do so in about half that time). The Polish 6th Airborne can drop a battalion on a similar timeline to the 173rd Airborne. The British 16 Air Assault Brigade and French 11th Parachute Brigade could each drop a reinforced company-sized element on a 30-hour timeline.
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True, these forces would not be able to stop a Russian invasion. But they would pose big problems for the Russians. These are not ceremonial guards; they are highly trained and aggressive combat infantry formations. They would exploit what the Ukraine war has proven are systemic Russian challenges in conducting coordinated offensives across different units. Alongside the Estonian army, they could direct air strikes, harass and divide enemy spearheads, and buy time for massed reinforcements. Crucially, their deployment would deny Putin what he knows he needs to win any confrontation: a divided and impotent NATO.
Russia is a determined American adversary that aggressively harms Americans. Trump should order measured action to deter this foe and preserve the peace.
