Icelandic voters are casting their ballots this week whether to reopen negotiations for joining the European Union in a referendum some see as a way to protect their island against Washington’s desire to expand into the North Atlantic.
Citizens will vote on Saturday in a referendum asking “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?” President Donald Trump’s bellicose tone toward neighboring Greenland has been received with dead seriousness by officials in Reykjavik, who fear that their island would be a future target for American expansionism. Supporters of the proposal see EU membership as a valuable layer of defense against encroachment.
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“Obviously, all of this Greenland matter concerns people, right? It’s a huge problem,” Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir said of Trump’s campaign to take the neighboring territory in an interview last month. “The fact that we have leaders in the free world talking like this is an issue. It’s a massive issue, and I know Icelanders are very concerned about it.”
The ease with which Trump’s Greenland ambitions could spill over into a campaign to take Iceland were highlighted during the president’s Davos speech this year, in which he repeatedly confused the names of the two islands while talking about his plans to acquire Greenland.
Trump’s desire to take control of Greenland is not pointless — the United States and its allies have documented an increased presence of Russian and Chinese vessels in the North Atlantic and fear that the Arctic region amounts to an unguarded avenue for operations by adversaries on the other side of the world.
Iceland, with a population of approximately 400,000 and no formal armed forces, is the only member of NATO lacking a standing military.
Icelandic Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir previously warned that “Russia has significantly increased its military presence in the region, and China also demonstrates growing strategic interest.”
During the joint Northern Viking exercise conducted in Iceland between almost a dozen NATO member states earlier this month, NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, grimly joked that “supposed Russian and Chinese research vessels are conducting joint patrols” in the region but “we all know they’re not up here counting puffins.”
Even if the referendum were to pass, actually joining the EU is a gargantuan task that Gunnarsdottir has warned could take 18 months or more.
The country previously flirted with joining the alliance in 2009 amid economic ruin caused by the previous year’s financial crisis, but a conservative government in 2015 ended that campaign.
Frostadottir has characterized this as the final referendum on the issue, which, if voted down, will not be brought up again.
“Yes” voters see the EU as a much-needed set of allies as world powers increasingly encroach on the North Atlantic as a region of interest for national security. Those against the prospect see the EU as just another supranational institution that could obstruct their way of life.
Polling ahead of the referendum shows the two camps are neck and neck. RUV, Iceland’s national broadcasting service, reports that a recent survey shows 51.6% plan to vote against resuming negotiations with the EU, compared to 48.4% who plan to vote in the affirmative.
Conversely, a poll from research company Maskina reports that 51.3% of voters intend to vote “Yes,” compared to 48.7% who intend to vote “No.”
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Integrating into the alliance requires adopting an almost uncountable number of regulations, treaties, mandates, and laws. That includes regulations on industries like fishing, the cherished backbone of the Icelandic economy that citizens and government officials consider inviolable.
“Aligning on the EU’s rules relating to agriculture and fishing, especially on fisheries management and catch quotas, is likely to prove contentious and time consuming,” a report from the Atlantic Council suggested.
Ascension into the EU also requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states.
