Don’t Look at the Ball—If You Really Want to Understand Baseball

Published October 28, 2014 10:23pm ET



Last week Gregg Ritchie, head baseball coach at George Washington University, was talking about what happens when a baseball team strikes out more than seven times in a game. The more you whiff the less chance you have of winning, explained Ritchie. Sunday night’s game showed just how accurate that theory is: The Royals struck out eight times against Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner, meaning that for nearly three full innings the Royals failed to put the ball in play and force the Giants to make plays. “You have to make your own chances against a front-line pitcher like Bumgarner,” says Ritchie. And when you don’t, chances are that you’ll lose.

As the San Francisco Giants northeast director of scouting John Castleberry told me, this World Series is an example of pre-steroid baseball—grinding baseball, with lots of defense and solid team fundamentals, which on offense means putting the ball in play. However, the reality is that these two clubs are exceptional, especially when it comes to making the other side catch and throw the ball, because strike out rates are hitting historical, and absurd, highs. Consider the fact that hitters were striking out more than 20 percent of the time this year, compared to a little less than 15 percent in 1990 and 8.2 percent in 1930.

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