Former Republican governor Linda Lingle of Hawaii might win one of the major upsets in the U.S. Senate 2012 elections. As the most popular GOP figure in state history and an extraordinary campaigner, I suggest this despite the fact that Hawaii is one of the most Democratic states in the nation, that it is the home state of the candidate at the top on the Hawaiian ballot, President Obama, and that her opponent, Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, is a formidable political figure in her own right.

Polling is difficult in this state, and often inaccurate, but the few recent published polls indicate Horono is well ahead, perhaps by double digits. Lingle has released her own internal poll that asserts she is only 4 points behind Hirono (with Hirono under 50 percent). The public release of a candidate’s own poll just before an election is often not reliable information, so skepticism is in order. On the other hand, Lingle is a unique political figure in this state, and was a very popular two-term governor who only recently retired.