The national polls paint a grim portrait for the Donald Trump campaign. The current Real Clear Politics average of the two-way polls shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding 6.8 percent lead. While there is still plenty of time left in the campaign, it is difficult to overcome such a large deficit after the parties have already held their conventions. This problem is worsened by the fact that the undisciplined Trump seems to lack the wherewithal to right his wobbly ship.

In 2012, Mitt Romney ran relatively close to Barack Obama in the national polls. The final Real Clear Politics average had Obama up by less than one percent, and Romney led in the average for most of the final month of the campaign. There was a notable divergence between the state and national polls that cycle, with the state polls showing Obama in much better shape. The latter turned out to be right, as Obama won a comfortable victory.