The media tells us the yield curve is inverted and this means a recession is both certain and imminent. Every media outlet that’s not for President Trump has been bouncing with glee to point it out to us. There is a point to the story too: An inverted yield curve, where it costs more to borrow for short terms than longer, where long-term interest rates are lower than short-term, is usually a sign of an impending recession.

The thing is, though, economic thigh bone does have to be connected to the economic hip bone. I learned that from Paul Krugman so it must be true. The meaning being that if this thing is happening over here then we should be able to see this other thing happening over there. Everything must add up. For example, if wages have been lagging productivity then the labor share of the economy must have been falling. It hasn’t (not over the time period usually claimed it hasn’t), therefore wages haven’t been lagging productivity. No matter what people tell us, it simply hasn’t been happening. It must all balance and the sums must be complete.