ESCALATE TO DE-ESCALATE: Growing more frustrated by the day with Iran’s refusal to stop shooting at ships in an effort to assert control of the Strait of Hormuz, and angered by attacks on U.S. troops and bases in the Gulf region, President Donald Trump is considering employing a strategy straight out of Russia’s nuclear doctrine known as “escalate to de-escalate.”
“I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it,” the president told Axios’s Barak Ravid in a brief interview yesterday.
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Trump has already threatened to expand targets in Iran, including around the capital Tehran, to include bridges and power plants. And overnight, the U.S. Central Command said it successfully completed the 13th consecutive night of strikes against what it said hit “Iranian military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities.”
The New York Times, citing Iranian and Iraqi officials, is reporting that Iran yesterday rejected a ceasefire proposal from President Trump that was carried to Tehran by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaid following his recent visit to the White House.
“They would like to do something, but I say they’re not ready yet,” Trump told reporters at a White House event. They need more of the same. They’re not ready yet. They’ve got some evil intentions.”
The U.S. military doesn’t release numbers of strikes or specific targets, but social media reports indicated that last night’s action included a “large-scale attack on Ahvaz in Iran’s main oil region, with more than 35 strikes.”
Ahvaz is the capital of Khuzestan Province, housing Iran’s major oil production and refining infrastructure, with oil facilities likely among the targets,” one post said.
RUBIO: ‘THE PRESIDENT’S POLICY IS A HEAD FOR AN EYE’: Speaking to reporters in Manila at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations conference, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump is not interested in a proportional response limited only to strict military targets.
Rubio was responding to a question about Trump’s threat to take out power plants and bridges, “Do you rule out striking civilian infrastructure?
“I saw Araghchi, their foreign minister, who the other day said something about their policy is ‘an eye for an eye.’” The president’s policy is ‘a head for an eye,’” Rubio responded. “I mean, honestly, that’s what it’s going to be. I mean, they will pay a very heavy price for the things they’re doing. They’re already paying a very heavy price.”
Rubio said Trump is not making it up when he keeps saying Iran is desperate for a deal.
“Their industrial base has been decimated. Their defense industrial base has been decimated. They’re losing launchers; they’re losing radars every single night. They are suffering billions of dollars in damage, and their economy is a disaster,” Rubio said. “But despite all that, OK, these people who are calling us every day begging, let’s do a deal, they send us messages through other countries, third countries. I mean, they’re running out of countries to send — even I had countries here coming up to me, ‘Oh, I just spoke to the Iranians, they want to do a deal.”
“The problem is, every time these people do a deal, they either break it or, after they make it, they want to change the deal,” Rubio said. “So, they’re probably not ready to do a deal yet, but they will be soon because the price they’re paying is very high despite their tough talk and their flowery language and their stupid Lego videos. … Despite all that bravado, they are suffering tremendously, and they’re going to suffer more until they come to their senses. They’re not there yet, unfortunately.”
In his interview with Axios, Trump said, “They haven’t received enough pain yet.”
A NEW PRESSURE POINT: In a Truth Social post last night, Trump informed Iran that he plans to reimburse shipping companies and others for damage resulting from Iranian attacks.
“Until further notice, that from this point forth, any and all damages done to Ships, Cargo, or anything related thereto, will be paid for by Iranian Money that the United States has in its possession, and controls,” Trump wrote. “These damages may be very substantial but, nevertheless, this is the fair and equitable thing to do.”
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi immediately responded on X, threatening any country accepting reimbursement from the U.S. with retribution in the future.
“Seizing another nation’s assets to pay for unrelated future claims is an incendiary precedent,” Araghchi wrote. “Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalize confiscation, no one’s assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful.”
Iranian state media said that Iran launched more drone attacks today against U.S. military targets at bases in Bahrain and Jordan.
Iran also posted before-and-after satellite imagery of what it said was the aftermath of their attack on Amazon servers in Bahrain that were connected to a U.S command and control center.
TRUMP SAYS IRANIAN MONEY IN US POSSESSION WILL PAY FOR SHIP DAMAGE
Good Friday morning, and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com.
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HAPPENING TODAY: PENTAGON DISAVOWS DISAPPEARING US KIA: The New York Times published a shocking story last night, noting that on the Pentagon’s website that tracks casualties from all wars, including Epic Fury, the number of deaths from the Iran war had dropped from 18 back to 14.
The last four soldiers — whose remains were returned to the U.S. this week as Trump paid his respects — were no longer listed anywhere on the Defense Casualty Analysis System.
“Three military officials and a Pentagon spokesman gave conflicting explanations for why the number of Americans killed in the Iran war had changed,” the report said, adding that “Three military officials said that one reason behind the change was … because their deaths occurred after President Trump declared a cease-fire in the war in April.”
Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell took to X to cry foul, explaining the omissions were “due to a temporary data disruption,” as the site URL was being updated, and blasting the newspaper.
“This is one of the worst instances of the Fake News media manufacturing lies out of thin air for absolutely no reason at all but to cause distress among the American people,” Parnell railed against the New York Times.
“Our Pentagon Press Office gave the New York Times a courtesy off-the-record phone call explaining in detail that the site errors on the Defense Casualty Analysis System were due to a temporary data disruption. Our team explained we are working on it being resolved in coordination with the Military Services,” Parnell said. Regardless of that true explanation, the New York Times was already colluding with three anonymous sources to push a completely fake story.
“These site anomalies are currently being resolved in coordination with the Military Services,” Pentagon press secretary Joel Valdez added in a statement. “We remain committed to ensuring the utmost accuracy of all casualty reporting.”
PENTAGON ABRUPTLY REMOVES FOUR IRAN WAR TROOP DEATHS FROM CASUALTIES WEBSITE
LAURA LOOMER’S UKRAINIAN EPIPHANY: The provocative influencer and self-styled investigative journalist Laura Loomer is in Ukraine. She went there, she said, to find out for herself if Ukraine was really a corrupt nest of nazi-sympathizers who were the bad guys in the war with Russia.
Boy, did she get an eyeful, including interactions with Ukrainians in Kyiv, and witnessing their daily ritual of heading for bomb shelters every time sirens blared in the capital.
The trip has given Loomer an epiphany of biblical proportions. “I spoke with officials who rescue POWs and they showed me photos of Ukrainian POWs who had swastikas engraved into their forehead by Russians. Who are the Nazis? I was lied to for years,” Loomer posted on Monday. “I did say these things about Ukraine and Zelensky and I am not deleting my posts because I’ve realized, I was wrong. I was living in a media echo chamber and I was propagandized by Russian media on social media to believe those things,” Loomer posted on Monday.
Yesterday, Loomer was granted an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and was excited to find that Trump reposted clips of the interview with the comment, “Very good!!! President DJT.” Among the clips is one where Zelensky explains what happened after the famous Oval Office confrontation, in which Trump told Zelensky he “didn’t have the cards.”
It would appear that both Loomer and Trump have had a change of heart about Zelensky, now that the tide of battle has turned.
“I am disturbed by the GOP’s refusal to crack down on the Russian and Islamic propaganda that is rotting the brains of GOP voters,” Loomer said in another post from her trip. “We need to have moral clarity. I don’t care if people in the GOP disavow me. They will come to see how evil Russia is as they continue funding Iran with weapons to murder US soldiers as they call for President Trump to be assassinated.”
“I traveled here myself in the middle of their war to learn more about Ukraine with my own eyes and I am floored with how many Russian lies I fell for,” Loomer posted this morning. “It’s kind of scary.”
ZELENSKY STRUGGLES TO BRIDGE GENERATIONAL GAP IN MILITARY APPROACH TO RUSSIA
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Pentagon abruptly removes four Iran war troop deaths from casualties website
Washington Examiner: Trump says Iranian money in US possession will pay for ship damage
Washington Examiner: Houthis attack two Saudi tankers, with oil prices jumping in response
Washington Examiner: The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the second oil chokepoint strained by Iran war
Washington Examiner: Trump says Saudi nuclear deal depends on country joining Abraham Accords
Washington Examiner: The Abraham Accords: What are they, and why does Trump want Saudi Arabia involved?
Washington Examiner: Zelensky struggles to bridge generational gap in military approach to Russia
Washington Examiner: DOJ withdraws subpoenas to New York Times reporters
Washington Examiner: Navy official placed on leave after vowing to undo Trump’s policies
Washington Examiner: Secret Service agent for Vance under review for allegedly leaking information
Washington Examiner: Opinion: JD Vance handed Iran $6 billion — American soldiers paid the price
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump’s hands are tied in Hormuz. Here’s ‘Plan B’
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Deal with Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain by making it a prison
Washington Examiner: Opinion: To deter China from invading Taiwan, Trump must exploit pressure points
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Reading is now a crime in Hong Kong
Axios: Trump ‘close’ to decision on “massive attack” on Iran
AP: Explosions are heard near a US base in northern Iraq after US strikes Iran
AP: US Military Says It’s Launching New Strikes on Iran as Clashes Escalate over Shipping Routes
Wall Street Journal: Satellite Images Show Iran Is Rebuilding. Fast.
New York Times: Iran Rejected a U.S. Cease-Fire Offer Delivered by Iraq, Officials Say
Washington Post: Saudi Nuclear Deal in Doubt as Trump Adds New Condition Regarding Israel
New York Times: A New Target for Ukraine’s Long-Range Attacks: Russia’s Version of Amazon
Washington Post: After a hometown soldier’s death, a Texas suburb wrestles with Trump’s Iran war
New York Times: ‘He Wanted to Come Home So Bad,’ a Soldier’s Widow Recalls
Air & Space Forces Magazine: EA-37 Electronic Warfare Aircraft Deploy as Trump Weighs Large-Scale Ops Against Iran
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Wants New Ground-Based Launcher for Air Base Defense
Aviation Week: Lockheed Targets Updated Sniper Pod Production Next Year
Defense News: ‘Incredible Work’: Ukrainian F-16 Downs Russian Fighter Jet for First Time
Air & Space Forces Magazine: A $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget? Not So Fast, Experts Warn
Breaking Defense: Pentagon Willing to Work with Industry over Critical Mineral EO Concerns
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pentagon Awards Largest-Ever F-35 Spare Parts Contract
CNBC: Oracle Signs 10-Year Software Contract with Pentagon Worth up to $7 Billion
Defense Scoop: Trump Authorizes Use of AI for Defense Supply Chain Mapping
Forbes: Opinion: Stop Judging Airpower Against Missions It Was Never Assigned
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | JULY 24
6:30 a.m. Gdansk, Poland — German Marshall Fund of the United States “Unbreakable Ukraine Forum,” with former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-SD) https://www.gmfus.org/event/ukraine-recovery-conference
7:45 a.m. 300 First St. SE — National Institute for Deterrence Studies seminar: “The Israel Iran Wars: Missile Offense vs. Missile Defense,” with Uzi Rubin, former director, Israel Missile Defense Organization https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/dr-uzi-rubin-live-at-the-capitol-hill-club
10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Taiwan’s National Mobilization Against the China Threat, with Chi-Chang Tsai, Yuan legislative member; Pao-Yang Shen, Yuan legislative member; Ting-Yu Wang, Yuan legislative member; and Miles Yu, director, Hudson China Center https://www.hudson.org/events/taiwans-national-mobilization-against-china-threat
7 p.m. — White House Correspondents Association annual dinner, with President Donald Trump, rescheduled from April 25
TUESDAY | JULY 28
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report,” webinar with Kevin Hymel, author of Patton’s War: An American General’s Combat Leadership Volume 3: January 1-December 21, 1945, highlighting Gen. George Patton’s battlefield leadership during World War II. https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report/pattons-war
