WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY: Good afternoon and happy Thursday, readers! The government is back in action after the longest government shutdown, with federal employees now heading back to work.
In today’s newsletter, we first take a look at International Energy Agency projections that global oil supply is expected to jump 3.1 million barrels per day this year and 2.5 million next year 🛢️. We break down what these numbers mean for the oil markets.
Meanwhile, in New York, the state is hitting pause on a new law that would require all-electric heating and cooking systems in new buildings and homes 🔥🎛️🔥. Keep reading to learn more about the legal challenge that’s putting the mandate on pause.
Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner energy and environment writers Callie Patteson (@CalliePatteson) and Maydeen Merino (@MaydeenMerino). Email cpatteson@washingtonexaminer dot com or mmerino@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.
OIL SUPPLY GLUT FEARS LOOM HEADING INTO 2026: The International Energy Agency is warning that there will be an even greater surplus of crude oil next year, creating an increasingly unbalanced market.
The details: In its monthly oil market report released today, the IEA estimated that global oil supply growth will jump to 3.1 million barrels per day this year and 2.5 million bpd in 2026. This continues to well outpace demand, by roughly 2.4 million bpd for 2025 and 4 million bpd next year.
That’s not to say demand isn’t rising – it is. The IEA forecasts that global demand will also grow by 788,000 bpd this year and 770,000 bpd in 2026. As OPEC+ continues to increase production, though, and the Trump administration looks to boost exports of oil and gas, the IEA has warned that the industry is becoming increasingly unbalanced.
Key quote: “Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards,” the Paris-based agency said. “At the same time, the risks to the forecast remain plentiful, with the economic repercussions of the recent tariff turmoil and the U.S. federal government shutdown still uncertain, and the impacts of new sanctions on Russia yet to become clear.”
Where prices stand: The IEA’s updated forecast comes one day after oil prices plunged by roughly $2 per barrel. Both domestic and international benchmarks began to recover today.
At 2:30 p.m. Brent Crude was up 0.48% and selling at $63.01 per barrel. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate had risen by 0.34% and priced at $58.69 per barrel.
NEW YORK DELAYS GAS STOVE BAN: New York state is postponing the implementation of a law that would mandate all-electric heating and cooking systems in new buildings and homes, effectively banning natural-gas powered stoves and furnaces.
Quick reminder: The law, known as the All-Electric Buildings Act, was scheduled to go into effect in January. Once in effect, the law would bar the installation of gas-powered heating and cooking systems in new buildings that are seven stories or shorter. The mandate was also expected to take effect for all other buildings in 2029, with some exceptions for large buildings such as stores, hospitals, and restaurants.
The details: Attorneys representing the state agreed to delay the implementation of the law in a stipulation filed in the U.S. District Court in Albany on Wednesday, as the mandate has been wrapped up in court challenges for years.
The state is facing lawsuits from trade groups, led by Mulhern Gas, that have argued that the law infringes on federal law. The groups first filed their lawsuit in 2023, arguing that the Energy Policy and Conservation Act preempted state laws.
In July of this year, the federal court for the Northern District of New York upheld the law, ruling that the state’s ban on new gas and propane heating and cooking systems was not preempted. The groups are now appealing the ruling.
New York Secretary of State Walter Mosley wrote in the filing that the decision to temporarily suspend the law was to “avoid further litigation” and “uncertainty” during the appellate process.
Read more from Callie here.
GAS INDUSTRY TO BENEFIT FROM AI’S ENERGY DEMAND…LATE NEXT YEAR: Natural gas producers, processors, and power productions have much to gain from soaring energy demands brought on by artificial intelligence – particularly as the fossil fuel industry is in favor of the Trump administration. However, those benefits won’t be seen for at least another year, one executive says.
The details: Adnoc Gas’s chief financial officer Peter van Driel told the Wall Street Journal this week that the gas processing firm has not yet seen an earnings boost related to AI and data center driven energy demand. It’s coming, though, he said, estimating that the company will see a boost in late 2026 or early 2027.
“I am convinced ultimately that AI will improve our bottom line,” van Driel told the outlet.
Adnoc Gas, which is an arm of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company group, is also predicting that AI energy usage will cause a 13% jump in worldwide demand for natural gas by 2030. By comparison, the IEA estimates that global gas demand rose by 2.7% in 2024 alone.
SOLAR STALLING AND GAS SLOWLY BUILDING, REPORT FINDS: In its latest Power Market Report, energy transition tracker Cleanview is seeing the Trump administration’s pro-fossil fuel agenda playing out, as growth for renewables like solar power is beginning to slow while natural gas is on the up.
On solar: While the solar industry has seen record levels of growth in recent years – domestic manufacturing capacity of solar panels nearly quadrupled between 2022 and 2024 – the industry may have reached its peak.
Cleanview found that, since November 2024, annualized utility-scale solar capacity additions fell by 6%. The energy transition tracker said the dip can likely be attributed to developers rushing to complete projects before the Biden administration’s tariffs on imports from Southeast Asia kicked in, as well as higher interest rates.
On gas: Cleanview also found that natural gas capacity additions are on the rise – increasing 19% year-over-year. Over the last 13 months, it estimated, there were around 3,937 megawatts of natural gas additions. This is still far below (around 84%) the peak seen in March 2019, which was around 23,959 megawatts.
Cleanview estimates this still shows a lack of interest in mass construction of new gas plants, however, with AI demand set to soar, that trend will very likely shift – as van Driel pointed out above. Cleanview’s report details that natural gas capacity under construction grew 64% year-over-year and gas capacity across all stages of development more than doubled in that same time frame.
You can read more findings from the report on wind and battery trends here.
PLUGPOWER SUSPENDS LPO-BACKED HYDROGEN PROJECT: Plug Power, a company specializing in producing hydrogen fuel cells, is pulling the plug on its plans to construct six facilities to produce and liquify zero or low-carbon hydrogen – putting at risk the federal loan guarantee it got during the Biden administration.
The details: Plug Power confirmed with Daily on Energy today that it suspended activities on the projects, which were set to be financed through the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office. The company received a $1.66 billion loan guarantee in January, in the final days of the Biden administration.
Plug Power previously estimated that the total project would support 100-200 construction jobs as well as an additional 50 full-time positions at each location. The hydrogen fuel produced at the facilities was intended to be used for fuel cell electric material handling equipment as well as the transportation and industrial sectors.
In its third quarter filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Plug Power explained that it is temporarily suspending activities related to its DOE loan while it evaluates reallocation of capital. The company also admitted that the move puts the $1.66 billion at risk as DOE could modify or fully terminate the funding.
“Plug’s trajectory remains driven by strong global demand for its hydrogen solutions, and the company’s plans do not depend on government funding,” the company said in a statement shared with Daily on Energy. “This evolution reinforces Plug’s commitment to operational efficiency, stakeholder value, and sustainable growth.”
When asked whether DOE plans to terminate the loan, the agency directed Daily on Energy to Plug Power.
EU SUPPORTS 2040 EMISSION REDUCTION GOAL: The European Parliament approved the European Union’s plan to reduce emissions by 90% by 2040, Reuters reports.
As part of the plan, countries can purchase foreign carbon credits to cover up to 5% of the emission reduction goal. While the plan is more ambitious than those of other countries, it falls short of the target scientific advisors recommended – at least 90% reduction in emission without offsets.
EU countries supported the new goal last week, just ahead of the United Nations’ annual climate summit, COP30. At the summit, nations will be discussing how to achieve their emission targets, as many have fallen short.
The goal is a weaker version of the plan created by the European Commission, which would have allowed for countries to buy foreign carbon credits to cover up to 3% of emission reductions. EU countries will now be allowed to purchase 5% of the emission reduction goal, lowering the overall target to 85%.
DEMOCRATS CRITICIZE TRUMP OVER EXPORT CONTROL DELAY ON CHINA: Several top Democrats criticized the Trump administration’s move to delay a rule that would have restricted Chinese companies from accessing U.S. technology in exchange for rare earths.
In September, the Commerce Department issued the so-called “affiliates rule,” which would prevent firms that are at least 50% owned by sanctioned companies from receiving U.S. tech exports. However, the rule was suspended for a year starting earlier this week as part of the administration’s truce with China to ease export restrictions on rare earths.
Reuters reports that top Democrats sent a letter to the administration calling the move to suspend the rule as a “giveaway of key national security tools.”
The letter was signed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, as well as Democratic Sens. Ron Wyden of Oregon, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, Jeff Merkley of Oregon, Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico, Andy Kim of New Jersey and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.
The senators wrote, “The suspension of these controls undermines U.S. national security and will make it far more difficult to stem the illicit diversion of American-made semiconductors and other advanced technology to Chinese state-affiliated entities.”
“We urge you to reinstate these controls and end your giveaway of key national security tools,” they added.
As a reminder: At the end of October, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached an agreement to ease restrictions that China had recently imposed on exports of five rare earth minerals. China has used its control over rare earths as leverage against the United States, as the minerals are critical for applications in the energy and environment sectors.
ICYMI – PENNSYLVANIA EXITS REGIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INITIATIVE: As part of budget deal, Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is withdrawing the state from the Northeast’s cap-and-trade program.
In a move to end a stalemate over the budget that lasted over 100 days, state Democrat lawmakers agreed to withdraw from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative of RGGI as part of the negotiations. RGGI is a multistate cap-and-trade program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.
Democrats agreed to exit the program as a way to secure more funding for public schools and income tax credits for lower-income families.
What are they saying: Environmental Defense Fund managing director Amanda Leland said, “Governor Shapiro and legislative leaders have needlessly sacrificed Pennsylvania’s most promising tool for lowering household electricity bills and reducing pollution.”
“Pennsylvanians are calling for cleaner air, lower energy bills and a responsible state budget — not for their Governor to lock the state into dirty, expensive energy sources of the past,” Leland added.
Commonwealth Foundation’s vice president of policy, Elizabeth Stelle, said “Pennsylvania’s withdrawal from RGGI marks a major victory for families and job creators already struggling with skyrocketing electricity rates.”
“With the threat of RGGI gone, we can focus on reliability and affordability, paving the way for Pennsylvania to embrace all its energy resources and secure American energy independence,” Stelle said.
Read more about Pennsylvania’s budget by the Washington Examiner’s Molly Parks here.
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