Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the supreme court has many conservatives thinking about Roe v. Wade. A reversal of the decision is, for a number of reasons, unlikely. But the prospect has already sparked considerable commentary on the downstream effects such an outcome might have.

Partisans on both sides have fixed on the socio-economic legacy of Roe. Proponents typically hail the increased educational and economic attainments for women that followed in the decades after the court created a constitutional right to abortion, while opponents often point to the demographic baby bust. Both sides ought to keep in mind that correlation does not equal causation. And conservatives, in particular, ought to understand that while there may be many good reasons—practical, legal, and moral—to overturn Roe, such action is unlikely to have much of an impact on America’s demographic challenges.