The Republican Party is moving early to build a political firewall around Arizona’s critical Electoral College votes, a recognition that the perennial red state is threatening to turn against President Trump in 2020.
The Trump campaign is hiring Brian Seitchik, a veteran Arizona operative, to run political operations in the state. He could take the helm as early as Wednesday, a full 18 months before Election Day, and would work in tandem with the Republican National Committee to build and oversee an extensive field program supported by paid staff and volunteers.
Arizona Republicans say the state is legitimately in play after midterm elections that saw Kyrsten Sinema become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in three decades by capitalizing on the president’s vulnerability in the vote-rich Phoenix suburbs. They say the Trump campaign and RNC share their ominous assessment and expect money and manpower to pour in.
“We need a lot of resources, a lot of energy, a lot of ground game,” said Kelli Ward, the newly minted Arizona GOP chairwoman, in a Friday telephone interview with the Washington Examiner. “There is no complacency here on the ground because we know that the Democrats are organized and salivating at the opportunity to turn Arizona blue.”
[Related: Trump campaign moving early to keep Arizona from switching to blue in 2020]
Arizona has voted Republican in nine out of the last 10 presidential elections, and Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican, was handily reelected in 2018.
Yet, Trump in 2016 defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by a mere 3.5 percentage points. Indeed, some GOP operatives believe Clinton was on track to win the state’s 11 Electoral College votes before the FBI, less than two weeks before the election, issued a letter suggesting it was re-opening the investigation into the Democrats’ use of a private email server during her tenure as secretary of state.
Especially on the heels of Sinema’s victory, Republican insiders fret that Arizona — dominated by suburban voters and with a rising Hispanic population — is on the cusp of becoming a bona fide swing state, leaning blue, on par with Colorado and Nevada. That’s why, according to one knowledgeable GOP operative, the Trump campaign is treating the state like a top-tier battleground.
“It’s winnable for Trump but he’s going to have to spend time here campaigning and making sure everything is working properly,” added Randy Pullen, a former chairman of the Arizona GOP who is still active in state politics.
[Also read: Arizona border city declares state of emergency in face of migrant surge]
In Arizona, the 2020 campaign could hinge on “McCain Moms,” in reference to John McCain, the late Republican senator who served the state for more than 35 years until dying in office last August after a battle with brain cancer.
Some Arizona Republicans are using the moniker to describe suburban women who have historically supported GOP candidates and voted for Trump in 2016, albeit reluctantly. They also backed Ducey in 2018. But this cohort, repelled by Trump’s coarse behavior and culture war politics, has been drifting from the party, in some cases so much so that they might have voted for Sinema last fall.
Sen. Martha McSally, who lost to Sinema but was appointed by Ducey in January as McCain’s permanent successor, has already begun organizing a campaign to appeal to McCain Moms.
[Magazine: Kyrsten Sinema is the Senate’s new maverick]
Via a specialized voter turnout program dubbed “Arizona Vote,” the McSally campaign, in concert with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is mounting a major ground offensive, backed by a seven-figure spending, to persuade college-educated, suburban women and other important blocs to support the senator over likely Democratic challenger Mark Kelly.
The McSally campaign is coordinating with the Trump campaign and the RNC, and plans to share data upstream. The president’s team will be able to use the information to refine its targeting universe and more efficiently court voters, paying extra attention to those who might support Trump while completely avoiding those that are flat opposed.
“We are confident that President Trump will win Arizona again in 2016,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said. “In 2016 he made promises, and now he has deliverables.”
