Democratic congressman Gerry Connolly of Virginia may be vulnerable for reelection, according to details from an internal poll conducted on behalf of his Republican challenger. Connolly, the three-term Democrat who respresents a chunk of Washington’s Northern Virginia suburbs, is reportedly below 50 percent support in the poll, which was leaked to a conservative Virginia politics blog called Bearing Drift and was confirmed by the campaign of Republican candidate Suzanne Scholte.

According to the campaign, Connolly polls at 48 percent against Scholte, and just 26 percent say they are definitely voting for the Democrat. Connolly’s approval rating is 45 percent, and in a head-to-head match-up with Scholte among those who know both candidates, he leads her by just one point, 45 percent to 44 percent. The Scholte campaign would not provide the Republican’s performance against Connolly among all those polled.