Midterm election forecasts by political scientists and economists are starting to roll out, and the picture is not pretty for the Democrats. This one by Emory University political scientist Alan I. Abramowitz writing for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts a net loss of 37 Democratic House seats in November.

Abramowitz’s projections are based on four factors, including two that will likely continue to change between now and the election: the generic ballot (currently tied in Abramowitz’s model) and presidential approval (Obama +5 in Abramowitz’s model). The two other variables are already fixed (current number of GOP held seats and whether the president’s party is the same or different than the congressional majority).