ROSY SCENARIO, Iraqi version, suddenly finds herself out of favor. Not so long ago, she was the belle of the postwar ball. With a bit of tweaking by highly skilled American technicians, and some money that could be generated by the sale of oil, Iraq’s industry would be restored to its pre-Saddam glory. Oil would flow in sufficient quantities to dampen the upward pressure on prices, new areas would be opened to foreign investors–or American and British investors, anyway–and the stricken nation’s economy would float to prosperity on a sea of black gold. That is not to be. Thamir Ghadhban, the U.S.-appointed head of Iraq’s oil ministry, told the World Economic Forum in Jordan that problems with power supply are forcing him to lower his year-end production target from 2.5 to 2.0 million barrels per day. With 500,000 barrels needed to fuel Iraq’s power plants and to make gasoline, diesel, and kerosene for domestic use, and another 200,000 needed for reinjection to keep existing wells flowing, that leaves only a bit more than 1 million barrels per day available for export.

The OPEC cartel can easily make room for that volume of oil by cutting back its members’ output in order to maintain prices if market conditions require. So at least in the near term any hopes American policymakers had that Iraq would provide relief from current $30 per barrel prices will have to be put on hold.