SO FAR, SO GOOD. That about describes the U.S. economy as the first quarter comes to an end. Of course, that’s what the man who jumped off the 102-storey Empire State Building said as he passed the 50th floor. There is mounting opinion that 2006 will come in like a lion and go out like a lamb, that first-quarter boom will eventuate in fourth-quarter bust, that the bills for the past spending splurge are coming due–pick your cliché, and you’ll find it somewhere in the output of the economic commentariat.

These analysts are focused on the softening of the housing market. In the last quarter of 2006 sales of existing single-family homes registered their largest quarterly decline in over a decade, followed by January sales that were the lowest in almost two years. The unsold supply of homes at its highest level since 1998.