President Trump insists he is poised to win a second term on the strength of support from voters who plan to support him over presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden but are keeping quiet about their intentions when questioned by pollsters.
A majority of Pennsylvania voters agree, according to a new poll from Monmouth University examining voters’ opinions in this critical swing state.
In the survey, conducted July 9-13, Biden outpaced Trump by anywhere from 7 to 13 percentage points, depending on the turnout model tested. But perhaps stung by the president’s surprise victory in Pennsylvania four years ago, 57% of voters in the state said they believe there are “a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it,” according to a memorandum on the poll issued by the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The survey found that 54% of voters recalled being surprised that Trump won the state four years ago.
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by less than 1 point in 2016, closing a wide gap with the Democratic nominee down the stretch and becoming the first Republican to win the state’s Electoral College votes in nearly 30 years. That could be why, when Monmouth University asked registered voters who they expect to win this November, 46% predicted Trump, and 45% predicted Biden, despite the former vice president’s wide lead over the incumbent.
“The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth poll.
Belief in the existence of secret Trump voters is even higher among voters in Pennsylvania’s swing counties (62%) and the counties that supported Clinton in 2016 (61%) than it is in Trump counties (51%), perhaps revealing that Democrats lack confidence in polls showing Biden with a commanding lead. Meanwhile, just 27% of Pennsylvania voters believe there is a silent Biden vote.
