THE GAME of predicting the economic consequences of a president is, in a sense, a frivolous exercise: It is impossible to predict in advance the nature of the problems any president will be called upon to solve. Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected on a pledge to balance the budget, and reelected on a promise to keep America out of foreign wars. In the event, a deepening depression and Pearl Harbor made it madness to keep those promises, which were duly broken. George Bush the elder was elected on a promise never to raise taxes but, confronted with a stubborn fiscal deficit, decided to break his word–resulting in unwanted early retirement.

His son was elected on a platform that barely mentioned foreign policy, except to promise humility in dealing with foreign countries, and was converted by terrorists into a war president not noted for his deference to the United Nations. So in order to predict how a president will behave in office, and especially how he will handle the economy, it is important to guess at the issues he will face, and divine from his general philosophy the specific actions he is likely to take.