A few readers have challenged the calculations that led me to conclude that it would be “highly unlikely” for Giuliani to lose every race leading up to Florida and still emerge from that primary with a delegate lead. Now, I confess to dropping out of calculus three weeks into my senior year of high school, so I called up each state party to confirm how their delegates are awarded. The delegate situation is still a little murky, but you can read below for yourself to assess where things stand. Before I wade into that swamp though, here’s a clarification to my original post: It is possible for Giuliani to assume a delegate lead after losing the first six contests and winning Florida on January 29th if (1) no one else amasses a decisive delegate lead before Florida and (2) you don’t count the Iowa and Nevada caucuses, which don’t technically elect national delegates until later in the year. All of the following states, except Iowa and Nevada, have been docked half their national delegation by the RNC for moving their primaries to dates earlier than allowed by the party. Keep on reading only if you find it intriguing or useful to understand the minutiae of delegate apportionment. You can’t say I didn’t warn you. Full delegate calculations below the fold…January 3: Iowa caucus, 40 delegates. Voters in each precinct will elect delegates to their county conventions; these county delegates will in turn elect delegates to the district and state conventions, where the national delegates finally will be chosen by June 14. Got all that? Estimating how many delegates each candidate may ultimately receive based on the January 3 vote is complicated because: