This would be an awfully narrow win: Clinton 45% Obama 50% Undecided 5% According to the Real Clear Politics summary, Obama has led by 20, 14, and 12 in the most recent polls. And the American Research Group poll released today is not a victim of small sample size, at least: It’s a poll of 600 likely primary voters. The Orgeon primary is next Tuesday — the same day as the Kentucky primary. If Hillary wins Kentucky solidly, while Obama underperforms in Oregon, it will give new life to questions about Obama’s general election chances. He better hope this is a blip.