A COLLECTIVE SIGH OF RELIEF could be heard in Washington last weekend, as returns from the Taiwanese legislative election found President Chen Shui-bian’s ruling “Pan Green” coalition gaining less than had been expected–a net of just one seat. Much of President Chen’s agenda may well be blocked by the “Pan Blues,”–a coalition more willing to accommodate China–who retained their legislative majority.

The conventional wisdom has it that the rejection of Chen’s “radical pro-independence platform” will diminish the odds of a military showdown with China by reining back Taiwan from challenging the status quo. The only problem with this analysis? The challenge to the status quo in East Asia isn’t the free exercise of democracy in Taipei; it’s the mainland’s determination to crush it.