“Did you ever think Alabama and Mississippi would suddenly play a crucial role?” asks a Newt Gingrich adviser, a little amazed at the turns the Republican presidential race has taken in the last two months. Maybe no one imagined it, but for Gingrich, next week’s Alabama and Mississippi primaries are suddenly more than crucial. Unless the former speaker wins one, or maybe both, it’s hard to see him continuing his campaign.

Before Super Tuesday, the Gingrich team believed he not only had to win his home state of Georgia but also needed a victory in either Oklahoma or Tennessee. Gingrich won neither; he didn’t even finish second. But he won Georgia in a blowout, with a margin — 21 points — that Team Gingrich viewed as strong enough to keep going.