With the unexpected passing of Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), Republicans are salivating at the thought they might pick up the seat held by the old Democratic warhorse since he captured it in a 1974 special election that foreshadowed GOP bloodletting that November. The contest to replace Murtha sets up a preliminary testing grounds for a key component of the National Republican Campaign Committee’s plan for recapturing the U.S. House. “Republicans mine coal-country anxieties,” Politico reports. To remember that Murtha’s home base was Johnstown, famous for weathering its epic floods, begs the question: “Après Murtha, le déluge?”

Will a GOP special election win here be the first crack the levee, presaging a flood of Coal Country pickups? Considering the region’s enduring demographic dismay that will factor into looming reapportionment and redistricting decisions, in the long term will Murtha matter?