A poll released Monday shows Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock tied with the Republican senator he’s trying to beat, Steve Daines. But a broader look at the race suggests Bullock is an uphill fight.
Although the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling survey shows both candidates earning 48% of the vote, after interviewing 797 Montana voters, it carries a margin of error of 3.5% and appears to be an outlier.
On Sunday, Emerson College released its own poll showing Daines leading by nine points, earning 52% of the vote.
“Montana looks about the same as it did at this time in the 2016 race, we will be looking to see if there is a late break in the state which last time went for Trump giving him a 20 point win,” Emerson College Polling Director Spencer Kimball wrote.
And the RealClearPolitics average shows Daines leading Bullock by 3.3 points.
Coattails from President Trump’s reelection bid in this Republican-leaning state are likely to give Daines a further boost on Election Day, particularly as split-ticket voting is expected to reach historic lows. Of the last 12 Democratic nominees, Bill Clinton remains the only member of his party to win the state of Montana in a presidential race. In 2014, Daines won his seat by nearly 18 points against Democratic opponent Amanda Curtis.
Both candidates are facing a barrage of attacks, the likes of which Montana has never seen before. According to The Wesleyan Media Project, the Montana Senate race is the most expensive in the state’s history and voters there are currently subjected to more television ads there than any other state in the country. Between Sept. 5 and Sept. 27, Montana television channels aired roughly 44,300 commercials between either candidate.
Montana’s population hovers just over 1 million, but outside groups have spent over $50 million on advertising since the race began. The campaigns of both Daines and Bullock have spent nearly $30 million from their own coffers, dwarfing the estimated $75 million spent in the 2018 Montana Senate race between Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Matt Rosendale by the end of that race.
That money spent reflects how high the stakes are for both parties, with control of the Senate partially hinging on which party wins the race. Democrats need to win four to five Senate seats to win back control of the chamber.
Despite governing as a moderate Democrat, Republicans are attempting to tie Bullock to the mainstream Democratic Party, which conservatives say has moved significantly to the left since 2016. Those attacks have seemed to stick, making Bullock significantly less popular as a governor than he is as a Senate candidate. According to a MorningConsult ranking of the country’s most popular governors, Bullock was considered one of the most popular in the country with a 52% approval rating and 31% disapproving.
