The successful test-firing of two long-range missiles by Iran’s navy Monday and claims of a breakthrough in the country’s nuclear program have increased the probability that 2012 will see a dangerous showdown between the United States and its allies and a government in Tehran feeling squeezed by internal and external pressures, analysts said. Iran’s deputy navy commander Mahmoud Mousavi said on state television that his nation has “successfully test-fired long-range shore-to-sea and surface-to-surface missiles.” The missile test came at the end of Iran’s 10-day naval exercises, and against the backdrop of that country’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, throttling international oil supplies.

Tehran also announced Sunday that it had successfully produced its first nuclear fuel rod. Iranian officials claim the reactor produces radioisotopes for cancer treatment but U.S. intelligence officials and inspectors and analysts with the International Atomic Energy Agency believe the country is edging ever closer to producing nuclear weapons.