A nonpartisan election analysis site is tipping pivotal gubernatorial races in Pennsylvania and Michigan further in favor of Democrats.
A Cook Political Report update changed the prediction of the two races from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat.” Analyst Jessica Taylor stressed in a blog post that both races are still expected to be toss-ups but that Republicans have faced a precipitous decline in ratings throughout, more than any other current race. The two elections have pitted two Trump-endorsed conservatives, state Sen. Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and conservative commentator Tudor Dixon in Michigan, against Attorney General Josh Shapiro and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, respectively.
JOSH SHAPIRO RUNS FUNDRAISING CIRCLES AROUND DOUG MASTRIANO IN PA GOVERNOR’S RACE
“And while, yes, the environment has significantly improved for Democrats, the further slide of both contests down the GOP’s competitive ladder is due to weak candidates who are barely running even semi-functional campaigns,” Taylor wrote in a post explaining the shift, giving a damning analysis of the two Republicans.
She also pointed to a massive mismatch in funding as a likely cause. Shapiro is out-raising Mastriano by a whopping 40-to-1 margin, according to the Hill, while Whitmer also enjoys a comfortable advantage over her competitor in funding.
Neither election is expected to be a “rout,” Taylor wrote, but with just six weeks until the elections, Republicans have some catching up to do.
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Meanwhile, the gubernatorial race in deep-red Oklahoma was changed from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”

