IF YOU THOUGHT the report that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 7.2 percent was good news, wait until you see the revised estimate. I am told that the final figure will be at least 7.8 percent, and might well reach 8.0 percent. So much for the look in the rear view mirror. The more important question is whether the road ahead will provide a smooth ride to a sustained period of economic growth or prove as bumpy as the one over which we have recently traveled. We may get the answer as the Christmas shopping season unfolds.

The season starts on the Friday after Thanksgiving Day, known in the retail trade as Black Friday (black, as in the black ink that is generated for retailers on this, the busiest shopping day of the year). However, we are no longer able to date the season’s end: Consumers have become accustomed to postponing purchases until the January sales bargains.