Some Republican strategists are warning President Trump’s resistance to funding the U.S. Postal Service fully could boomerang with seniors, a crucial voting bloc that could swing the November election to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Trump is equivocating over whether he would sign legislation providing extra money to the Postal Service for the surge in mail-in ballots expected this fall because of the coronavirus, concerned that widespread absentee voting will lead to rampant election fraud. But concerned Republicans worry that seniors, who are susceptible to dying from COVID-19, will abandon the party on Nov. 3 if they believe the president is sabotaging the mail to force them to vote in person.
“Seniors are the most vulnerable part of the country to coronavirus,” Republican pollster Whit Ayers explained. “Logic suggests that seniors are going to be the most interested portion of the electorate in voting by mail rather than standing in line and entering a crowded election center.”
Seniors supported Trump 52% to 45% four years ago and tend to vote at a rate of 70% or more nationally in presidential elections, a significantly higher participation rate than other age groups. Seniors vote in even greater numbers in the battleground states most likely to determine the outcome of this year’s election — Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, making them particularly influential.
They also are more likely than younger voters to use the Postal Service generally — and rely on the agency to receive Social Security checks and shipments of prescription drugs.
That is why some political analysts say worried Republicans are right to be on edge about Trump’s comments and controversial changes in postal operations made by his recently appointed postmaster general, who critics claim will make it difficult for mail-in ballots to be delivered on time.
“Trump’s overt attacks on the Postal Service’s reliability and security when it comes to mail-in ballots may very well backfire with seniors,” said Jeffrey Brauer, a political science professor at Keystone College in Pennsylvania. “That, along with his political appointee postmaster general, who has been making cuts during a crucial time for mail delivery, could push many seniors into the Biden camp.”
Trump supports absentee voting, in which voters individually apply for a mail-in ballot and must provide a government-accepted excuse for skipping in-person participation. But the president opposes “universal” mail-in balloting in which states automatically send ballots to all registered voters.
During a news conference on Thursday, Trump suggested he would deny the Postal Service funding to prevent states from having universal mail-in voting.
“They want three and a half billion dollars for the mail-in votes. Universal mail-in ballots. They want $25 billion, billion, for the post office. Now they need that money in order to make the post office work so it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots,” Trump said. “But if they don’t get those two items, that means you can’t have universal mail-in voting because they’re not equipped to have it.”
Biden has beaten Trump among seniors in many recent polls, an advantage that has been a key factor in his lead over Trump in national polls and swing-state surveys. Although some Republican strategists fret post office politics could put Trump in a deeper hole with this group and cost him reelection, other GOP operatives say that concern is overblown. What matters most, they say, is how seniors view the president’s handling of the pandemic overall.
“I doubt the health of the post office is as dominating [an] issue as their own health and survival,” veteran Republican strategist Alex Castellanos said.
Meanwhile, Democrats pounced.
The Biden campaign and party leaders are accusing Trump of deliberately throwing sand in the gears of postal operations in a bid to disenfranchise Democratic voters and guarantee the president a second term. Democratic strategists said they expected the effort to fall flat and help Biden solidify his support among seniors.
“Trump is playing Russian roulette with seniors,” Democratic operative Jesse Ferguson said. “When seniors don’t get their mail, they’ll know exactly who to blame and exactly why he’s doing it.”
