Think beneath the headlines about trade deficits, unemployment rates, budget deficits and health care. Consider, instead, what all of this means for what is even more important than the fact that we are willing to our children an ocean of red ink that they will have to drain — the position of America in the world in which they will live. But first, give up the long-held myth that prosperity and an emerging middle class will be followed by a political liberalization. These newly enriched consumers will insist on unimpeded access to information, and on a say in the selection of their political leaders, who will gradually cede power and retire to their dachas and villas.

Alas, not true. It turns out that prosperity keeps autocrats in power — increased material living standards serve as a sort of bribe to the masses. The deal is: We will deliver jobs and rising living standards, and you will leave the levers of political power in our hands. If that deal starts to unravel, we will add to the mix appeals to national pride, which will take the form of flexing our muscles in ways that emphasize that America can no longer call the shots in important geopolitical matters.