FLORENCE, South Carolina — As Joe Biden slips behind Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren in some national polls and in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina has been his stronghold of support. But there are signs he is slipping there, too.
An October Post and Courier-Change Research poll found that Biden’s support among likely Democratic primary voters in the state slipped to 30% from 36% in August, while Warren’s increased from 17% in August to 19%, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s increased from 5% to 9%. Biden’s 11-point lead over Warren in the poll is down from a 31-point lead in May.
Biden’s team has tempered expectations for winning the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, the first two nominating contests in the country, instead turning attention to South Carolina, the fourth state to vote, and to picking up delegates in Super Tuesday states. South Carolina has always been viewed as his campaign firewall to protect him from catastrophe should he slip in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, which votes third.
The former vice president retains strength in South Carolina in part because of his support among black voters, who make up a majority of Democratic primary voters in the state. Biden led California Sen. Kamala Harris, who is of Jamaican and Indian descent, by 21 points in the Post and Courier October poll.
At Wilson High School in Florence on Saturday, a drum line performed before Biden spoke to a diverse crowd of about 240 people.
“He’s experienced. He’s been around for a minute, you know, even though young people coming up, but I think that his experience means more than anything,” said retired Florence resident Jackie Myers, 67, who attended the event.
“I think a man should be the leader,” Myers said. “A woman is fine, but you know, you can’t take the place of a man.”
Several of those at the Biden event were unfamiliar with other candidates in the race such as Warren, who attracted a whiter crowd of around 300 people at her own Florence town hall a few hours after Biden’s.
“I really don’t know that much about her,” said Jo Etta Chewning, a retired teacher in Florence who saw Biden.
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Elease Heyward, 70, was not very familiar with Buttigieg. “I don’t know him. I know of Biden,” she said at Biden’s Florence town hall.
Biden has been a familiar face to South Carolina voters. He attended events such as the James Clyburn Fish Fry in past years, while other candidates attended for the first time this year.
“People are very, very loyal to Obama. When I say, ‘Why are you supporting Biden?’ They’ll look at me like I’m crazy. They say, ‘Because he was Obama’s vice president,’” said Amy Hayes, former chairwoman of the York County Democratic Party in upstate South Carolina.
But as voters start to engage in the primary race and learn of other candidates, Biden’s support could start to diminish.
“If someone surprising wins Iowa that will give some people permission to support them” rather than Biden, Hayes said.
Those at Warren’s Florence town hall were ready to take the risk on a new face, seeing Biden’s decades in politics as a liability rather than an asset.
“I think [Biden’s] a little bit too cautious, is a little bit too afraid to make the stand he is going to need to bring voters out,” said South Carolina resident and Department of Veterans Affairs employee Elizabeth Price Crosby, 38, at Warren’s event.
Despite his campaign aides publicly saying that he will focus on picking up Democratic National Committee delegates in Super Tuesday states rather than on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden says he is not changing his style due to Warren’s rise in polls.
“She doesn’t affect my strategy, period,” Biden said on Saturday. “And I’m not being facetious. I think she’s a fine person, a good candidate, but I didn’t get involved in deciding to run because of polling or a particular strategy.”
