BETWEEN MARCH and April of this year, more than 3,000 same-sex couples were married at the Multnomah County Courthouse in Portland, Oregon. Since then, the gay marriage procession has been temporarily stopped. Today, as the building undergoes renovations, makeshift walls of wood plank and metal bars surround the courthouse. It’s a metaphor for how many in the state reacted when the Portland city council began issuing same-sex marriage licenses. Gay marriage is just one of several issues to have emerged since 2000 that could turn the state’s once Democrat-dominated seven electoral votes into a surprise gain for President Bush in the fall. As University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said, “There’s no question that Oregon is the least liberal state on the Left Coast.”

President Bush has visited Oregon more than any other president during their first term in office–and with good reason. Al Gore won the state by fewer than 6,000 votes in 2000. Bush’s strong showing included carrying the state’s fourth district, which encompasses the liberal bastion of Eugene. And while Bill Clinton carried the state twice, voters supported him by a smaller margin in 1996 than in 1992. Oregonians have elected a Republican controlled state legislature since 1994. Since 1988, Democratic voter registration has remained flat and Republican registration has seen a steady increase. Oregon also has a rapidly rising immigrant Latino population, a minority group open to supporting Bush.