John Boehner will step down as House Speaker on October 30. His announcement was not a total surprise, however, since he’d been expected to leave Congress as early as next year, or even sooner.

His likely replacement is almost certain to be House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, a fast-rising star in the Republican party. McCarthy, 50, was elected in 2006, became the GOP whip in 2011, then majority leader last year.