It’s either the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, says President Obama, or it’s another Middle East war. Opponents of the Iran nuclear agreement argue that this is simply a scare tactic the White House is using to get Congress to sign off on a lousy deal.

Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, explains that war is highly unlikely. Moreover, even if UN and EU sanctions are lifted, remaining U.S. sanctions will continue to isolate Iran, and not—contrary to the administration’s warnings—the United States.